ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy

Shimizu S-pulse Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tokyo Verdy Away · Elo 1,470
IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shimizu S-pulse win
Shimizu S-pulse winPick
46.7%
Draw
25.6%
Tokyo Verdy win
27.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.5%
Under 2.558.5%

How much we know

Shimizu S-pulse history71 matches
Tokyo Verdy history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Shimizu S-pulse are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shimizu S-pulse are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,504 against 1,470. On rating alone Shimizu S-pulse would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Shimizu S-pulse score more

    1.14 goals a game over 71 matches for Shimizu S-pulse, against 0.82 over 72 for Tokyo Verdy.

  • Defences are close

    Shimizu S-pulse concede 1.27 a game, Tokyo Verdy 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Shimizu S-pulse matches, against 38% for Tokyo Verdy. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shimizu S-pulse
Tokyo Verdy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.1
ELO
1470.1
71
ELO · Matches
72
1504.1
Current Team ELO
1470.1
1470.1
Current Opponent ELO
1504.1
33.99
Current ELO Difference
-33.99
0.55
Expected score
0.45
71
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.84
Overperformance
48.90
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
72
1.24
PPG
1.14
31.0%
Win rate
29.2%
31.0%
Draw rate
26.4%
38.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
52.8%
40.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
34
1.30
PPG
0.91
30.3%
Win rate
17.6%
39.4%
Draw rate
38.2%
30.3%
Loss rate
44.1%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
32.4%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
33
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
0.82
69.0%
Scoring rate
54.2%
52.1%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.65
81.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
35.3%
0.33
Goals for per game
0.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
72
1.14
Goals Mean
0.82
1.05
Goals Std
0.93
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
54.2%
28.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.8%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.31
74.6%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.18
78.8%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
72
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.09
Conceded Std
1.38
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.1%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
72
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.60
0.44
Stability score
2.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
70
18
Lead Matches
11
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.91
22
Trailing Matches
18
22.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.34
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.75
Rest days
76.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
43
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.61
2.00
Portability PPG Range
2.00
39.85
Portability Score
45.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO33.99
PPG0.10
GF0.32
GA-0.04
PPG0.33
PPG0.39
PPG1.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate14.8%
Scored 2+ rate7.3%
Scored 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.11
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score-2.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-5.28
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.10
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO33.99
Current Opponent ELO-33.99
Current ELO Difference67.99
Expected score0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shimizu S-pulse

L
Kyoto Sanga2–0Shimizu S-pulse31 Oct · away
Pick: Shimizu S-pulse 39% · missed
L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–0Shimizu S-pulse24 Oct · away
Pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 65% · hit
L
Shimizu S-pulse0–5Machida Zelvia21 Oct · home
Pick: Machida Zelvia 58% · hit
D
Shimizu S-pulse2–2Gamba Osaka17 Oct · home
Pick: Gamba Osaka 37% · missed
L
Yokohama F. Marinos2–1Shimizu S-pulse14 Oct · away
Pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 44% · hit

Tokyo Verdy

W
V-varen Nagasaki1–2Tokyo Verdy1 Nov · away
Pick: V-varen Nagasaki 45% · missed
W
Tokyo Verdy3–1Avispa Fukuoka24 Oct · home
Pick: Avispa Fukuoka 38% · missed
D
Yokohama F. Marinos2–2Tokyo Verdy21 Oct · away
Pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 58% · missed
L
Tokyo Verdy0–4FC Tokyo17 Oct · home
Pick: Tokyo Verdy 35% · missed
W
Biwako Shiga0–1Tokyo Verdy9 Sep · away
Pick: Tokyo Verdy 42% · hit

About this match

Shimizu S-pulse and Tokyo Verdy meet in J1 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Shimizu S-pulse win 46.7%, draw 25.6%, Tokyo Verdy win 27.7%. The pick is Shimizu S-pulse win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.5%. Both teams to score: 44.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.