ScoreProb
J1 League Japan Round 14 2027

Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

Nagoya Grampus Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kyoto Sanga Away · Elo 1,501
Toyota Stadium, Toyota City Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nagoya Grampus win
Nagoya Grampus winPick
48.5%
Draw
24.4%
Kyoto Sanga win
27.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%

How much we know

Nagoya Grampus history69 matches
Kyoto Sanga history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nagoya Grampus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.32 goals a game over 69 matches for Nagoya Grampus, against 1.39 over 69 for Kyoto Sanga.

  • Defences are close

    Nagoya Grampus concede 1.43 a game, Kyoto Sanga 1.32.

  • Nagoya Grampus games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Nagoya Grampus matches, against 49% for Kyoto Sanga. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.2
ELO
1501.3
69
ELO · Matches
69
1522.2
Current Team ELO
1501.3
1501.3
Current Opponent ELO
1522.2
20.91
Current ELO Difference
-20.91
0.53
Expected score
0.47
69
History Matches
69
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.27
Overperformance
49.87
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
1.90
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
69
1.28
PPG
1.48
33.3%
Win rate
40.6%
27.5%
Draw rate
26.1%
39.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
24.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.65
PPG
1.51
47.1%
Win rate
42.9%
23.5%
Draw rate
22.9%
29.4%
Loss rate
34.3%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.39
75.4%
Scoring rate
82.6%
60.9%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.34
82.4%
Scoring rate
77.1%
61.8%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
69
1.32
Goals Mean
1.39
1.06
Goals Std
1.11
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.6%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.32
75.4%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.26
73.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
69
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.28
Conceded Std
1.20
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
24.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
69
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.76
0.92
Stability score
1.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
67
14
Lead Matches
21
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
22
17.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
76.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.67
50.65
Portability Score
46.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO20.91
PPG-0.20
GF-0.07
GA0.12
PPG0.67
PPG0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-0.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score4.38
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO20.91
Current Opponent ELO-20.91
Current ELO Difference41.83
Expected score0.06
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nagoya Grampus

L
Vissel Kobe3–1Nagoya Grampus31 Oct · away
Pick: Vissel Kobe 55% · hit
D
Nagoya Grampus1–1Yokohama F. Marinos25 Oct · home
Pick: Yokohama F. Marinos 43% · missed
D
Nagoya Grampus1–1Cerezo Osaka21 Oct · home
Pick: Nagoya Grampus 43% · missed
W
Kashiwa Reysol1–3Nagoya Grampus17 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 62% · missed
W
Nagoya Grampus2–1Fagiano Okayama29 Aug · home
Pick: Nagoya Grampus 42% · hit

Kyoto Sanga

D
Công An Nhân Dân0–0Kyoto Sanga3 Nov · away
Pick: Công An Nhân Dân 40% · missed
W
Kyoto Sanga2–0Shimizu S-pulse31 Oct · home
Pick: Shimizu S-pulse 39% · missed
W
Kyoto Sanga5–2Newcastle Jets27 Oct · home
Pick: Kyoto Sanga 55% · hit
D
Gamba Osaka2–2Kyoto Sanga24 Oct · away
Pick: Gamba Osaka 56% · missed
D
Kyoto Sanga2–2Kashima21 Oct · home
Pick: Kashima 52% · missed

About this match

Nagoya Grampus and Kyoto Sanga meet in J1 League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Toyota Stadium, Toyota City. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nagoya Grampus win 48.5%, draw 24.4%, Kyoto Sanga win 27.1%. The pick is Nagoya Grampus win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.