ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 4 Romania Group 4 - 12 2026

Axiopolis vs Înainte Modelu

Axiopolis Home · Elo 1,463
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Înainte Modelu Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Înainte Modelu win
Axiopolis win
28.0%
Draw
23.7%
Înainte Modelu winPick
48.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Axiopolis history37 matches
Înainte Modelu history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Înainte Modelu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Înainte Modelu are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,516 against 1,463. On rating alone Înainte Modelu would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Înainte Modelu score more

    1.35 goals a game over 37 matches for Axiopolis, against 1.84 over 37 for Înainte Modelu.

  • Înainte Modelu concede fewer

    Axiopolis concede 2.00 a game, Înainte Modelu 1.27.

  • Axiopolis games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Axiopolis matches, against 54% for Înainte Modelu. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Axiopolis
Înainte Modelu@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.6
ELO
1516.3
37
ELO · Matches
37
1462.6
Current Team ELO
1516.3
1516.3
Current Opponent ELO
1462.6
-53.73
Current ELO Difference
53.73
0.42
Expected score
0.58
37
History Matches
37
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
46.98
Overperformance
50.67
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.90
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
37
1.11
PPG
1.46
29.7%
Win rate
43.2%
21.6%
Draw rate
16.2%
48.6%
Loss rate
40.5%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
70.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
45.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
21
1.21
PPG
1.14
31.6%
Win rate
28.6%
26.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
42.1%
Loss rate
42.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
19
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.84
73.0%
Scoring rate
73.0%
67.6%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.48
84.2%
Scoring rate
71.4%
78.9%
BTTS rate
52.4%
37
History Matches
37
1.35
Goals Mean
1.84
1.19
Goals Std
1.87
73.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
13.5%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.00
Goals against per game
1.27
89.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
2.16
Goals against per game
1.33
94.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
37
History Matches
37
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.39
Conceded Std
1.13
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
35.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
2.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
37
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.33
5.13
Stability score
6.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
15
2
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
4
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
93.90
Rest days
93.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
13
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.93
93.81
Portability Score
55.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-53.73
PPG-0.35
GF-0.49
GA0.73
PPG0.07
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.49
Goals Std-0.68
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.73
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate18.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.85
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.68
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.36
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score37.92
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO-53.73
Current Opponent ELO53.73
Current ELO Difference-107.5
Expected score-0.15
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Axiopolis

L
Axiopolis1–2Agigea31 Oct · home
Pick: Axiopolis 56% · missed
W
Portul Constanta1–6Axiopolis24 Oct · away
Pick: Portul Constanta 38% · missed
L
Axiopolis1–4Sporting Lieşti17 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Lieşti 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Înainte Modelu

L
Progresul Fundulea4–0Înainte Modelu31 Oct · away
Pick: Înainte Modelu 38% · missed
L
Înainte Modelu0–1Agricola Borcea23 Oct · home
Pick: Înainte Modelu 41% · missed
L
FC Oţelul II2–1Înainte Modelu17 Oct · away
Pick: Înainte Modelu 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Axiopolis and Înainte Modelu meet in Liga III - Serie 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Axiopolis win 28.0%, draw 23.7%, Înainte Modelu win 48.4%. The pick is Înainte Modelu win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.