Unirea Braniştea vs Sporting Lieşti
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting Lieşti win
Unirea Braniştea win
33.8%
Draw
21.0%
Sporting Lieşti winPick
45.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
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Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes65.3%
No34.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%
How much we know
Unirea Braniştea history39 matches
Sporting Lieşti history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sporting Lieşti
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Sporting Lieşti are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sporting Lieşti are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,592 against 1,559. On rating alone Sporting Lieşti would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
2.38 goals a game over 39 matches for Unirea Braniştea, against 2.28 over 40 for Sporting Lieşti.
-
Defences are close
Unirea Braniştea concede 1.51 a game, Sporting Lieşti 1.63.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
77% of Unirea Braniştea matches, against 75% for Sporting Lieşti. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting Lieşti@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1558.5
ELO
1591.9
39
ELO · Matches
40
1558.5
Current Team ELO
1591.9
1591.9
Current Opponent ELO
1558.5
-33.37
Current ELO Difference
33.37
0.45
Expected score
0.55
39
History Matches
40
0.08
Residual Mean
0.12
55.00
Overperformance
57.87
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
2.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals 90
39
Matches
40
1.85
PPG
1.90
59.0%
Win rate
57.5%
7.7%
Draw rate
17.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
48.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
19
2.50
PPG
1.89
80.0%
Win rate
57.9%
10.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
10.0%
Loss rate
26.3%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
85.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
20
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.38
Goals for per game
2.28
87.2%
Scoring rate
82.5%
59.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
2.90
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
68.4%
70.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
39
History Matches
40
2.38
Goals Mean
2.28
1.69
Goals Std
1.60
87.2%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
71.8%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
41.0%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
2.90
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.51
Goals against per game
1.63
69.2%
Conceding rate
77.5%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.26
70.0%
Conceding rate
78.9%
39
History Matches
40
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.43
Conceded Std
1.64
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
39
History Matches
40
0.80
Result entropy
0.88
2.32
Goal Difference Std
2.41
20.36
Stability score
11.73
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
20
Eligible Matches
26
7
Lead Matches
11
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
6
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
1.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
93.90
Rest days
79.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.08
Portability PPG Range
1.18
50.88
Portability Score
52.86
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
39
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.37
PPG-0.05
GF0.11
GA-0.11
PPG0.61
PPG-0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score8.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-1.99
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-33.37
Current Opponent ELO33.37
Current ELO Difference-66.73
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Unirea Braniştea
W
FC Oţelul II0–2Unirea Braniştea30 Oct · away
Pick: Unirea Braniştea 71% · hit W
Unirea Braniştea3–1Gloria Băneasa24 Oct · home
Pick: Unirea Braniştea 47% · hit D
Dunarea Calarasi1–1Unirea Braniştea16 Oct · away
Pick: Dunarea Calarasi 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sporting Lieşti
W
Gloria Băneasa1–5Sporting Lieşti31 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Lieşti 55% · hit D
Sporting Lieşti0–0FC Bacau28 Oct · home
Pick: FC Bacau 49% · missed W
Sporting Lieşti7–0Recolta Gheorghe Doja24 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Lieşti 63% · hit W
Axiopolis1–4Sporting Lieşti17 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Lieşti 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Unirea Braniştea and Sporting Lieşti meet in Liga III - Serie 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unirea Braniştea win 33.8%, draw 21.0%, Sporting Lieşti win 45.2%. The pick is Sporting Lieşti win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.