Recolta Gheorghe Doja vs Agigea
Match result probability Model pick: Recolta Gheorghe Doja win
Recolta Gheorghe Doja winPick
53.9%
Draw
21.0%
Agigea win
25.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.4%
No41.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%
How much we know
Recolta Gheorghe Doja history36 matches
Agigea history23 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Recolta Gheorghe Doja
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Recolta Gheorghe Doja are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Recolta Gheorghe Doja are rated 61 Elo points higher
Elo 1,483 against 1,421. On rating alone Recolta Gheorghe Doja would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Recolta Gheorghe Doja score far more
1.75 goals a game over 36 matches for Recolta Gheorghe Doja, against 1.04 over 23 for Agigea.
-
Defences are close
Recolta Gheorghe Doja concede 2.06 a game, Agigea 2.22.
-
Recolta Gheorghe Doja games more often go over 2.5 goals
72% of Recolta Gheorghe Doja matches, against 61% for Agigea. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Agigea@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1482.7
ELO
1421.3
36
ELO · Matches
23
1482.7
Current Team ELO
1421.3
1421.3
Current Opponent ELO
1482.7
61.40
Current ELO Difference
-61.40
0.59
Expected score
0.41
36
History Matches
23
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.17
49.21
Overperformance
41.07
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
3.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
0.90
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
36
Matches
23
1.28
PPG
0.87
41.7%
Win rate
26.1%
2.8%
Draw rate
8.7%
55.6%
Loss rate
65.2%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
11
1.65
PPG
0.36
55.0%
Win rate
9.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
9.1%
45.0%
Loss rate
81.8%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
20
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.75
Goals for per game
1.04
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.9%
63.9%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.90
Goals for per game
0.64
80.0%
Scoring rate
45.5%
65.0%
BTTS rate
45.5%
36
History Matches
23
1.75
Goals Mean
1.04
1.42
Goals Std
1.23
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
52.8%
Scored 2+ rate
21.7%
30.6%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
0.64
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.06
Goals against per game
2.22
88.9%
Conceding rate
91.3%
2.10
Goals against per game
2.91
85.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
36
History Matches
23
2.06
Conceded Mean
2.22
1.43
Conceded Std
1.50
63.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.2%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.4%
2.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
54.5%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
8.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
36
History Matches
23
0.72
Result entropy
0.77
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.16
28.01
Stability score
23.39
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
13
Eligible Matches
9
2
Lead Matches
1
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
3
14.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
100.9
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.27
Portability PPG Std
—
0.55
Portability PPG Range
—
64.71
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
36
Clean History Matches
23
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO61.40
PPG0.41
GF0.71
GA-0.16
PPG1.29
PPG1.20
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate15.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate14.1%
Scored 2+ rate31.0%
Scored 3+ rate17.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.04
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score4.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.50
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate14.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.72
Current Team ELO61.40
Current Opponent ELO-61.40
Current ELO Difference122.8
Expected score0.17
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance8.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Recolta Gheorghe Doja
W
Recolta Gheorghe Doja1–0Portul Constanta31 Oct · home
Pick: Recolta Gheorghe Doja 59% · hit L
Sporting Lieşti7–0Recolta Gheorghe Doja24 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Lieşti 63% · hit W
Recolta Gheorghe Doja6–5Gloria Băneasa17 Oct · home
Pick: Gloria Băneasa 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Agigea
W
Axiopolis1–2Agigea31 Oct · away
Pick: Axiopolis 56% · missed L
Agigea2–4Progresul Fundulea24 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Fundulea 51% · hit L
Agricola Borcea4–0Agigea16 Oct · away
Pick: Agricola Borcea 67% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Recolta Gheorghe Doja and Agigea meet in Liga III - Serie 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Recolta Gheorghe Doja win 53.9%, draw 21.0%, Agigea win 25.1%. The pick is Recolta Gheorghe Doja win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.