Progresul Fundulea vs Dunarea Calarasi
Match result probability Model pick: Dunarea Calarasi win
Progresul Fundulea win
32.7%
Draw
23.6%
Dunarea Calarasi winPick
43.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.4%
No44.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%
How much we know
Progresul Fundulea history36 matches
Dunarea Calarasi history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Dunarea Calarasi
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Dunarea Calarasi are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,519 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Progresul Fundulea score more
1.86 goals a game over 36 matches for Progresul Fundulea, against 1.23 over 43 for Dunarea Calarasi.
-
Defences are close
Progresul Fundulea concede 1.39 a game, Dunarea Calarasi 1.42.
-
Progresul Fundulea games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of Progresul Fundulea matches, against 47% for Dunarea Calarasi. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dunarea Calarasi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1518.7
ELO
1531.1
36
ELO · Matches
43
1518.7
Current Team ELO
1531.1
1531.1
Current Opponent ELO
1518.7
-12.38
Current ELO Difference
12.38
0.48
Expected score
0.52
36
History Matches
43
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
51.93
Overperformance
52.28
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
2.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.94
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals 90
36
Matches
43
1.56
PPG
1.51
47.2%
Win rate
41.9%
13.9%
Draw rate
25.6%
38.9%
Loss rate
32.6%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.5%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
22
1.84
PPG
1.41
57.9%
Win rate
40.9%
10.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
31.6%
Loss rate
40.9%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
19
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.86
Goals for per game
1.23
83.3%
Scoring rate
72.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
46.5%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.18
89.5%
Scoring rate
72.7%
68.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
36
History Matches
43
1.86
Goals Mean
1.23
1.55
Goals Std
1.05
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
52.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.0%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.42
77.8%
Conceding rate
62.8%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.45
73.7%
Conceding rate
72.7%
36
History Matches
43
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.09
Conceded Std
1.73
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
36
History Matches
43
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.14
9.36
Stability score
1.82
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
18
Eligible Matches
27
7
Lead Matches
10
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.83
4
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
66.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
100.9
Rest days
86.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.64
Portability PPG Range
1.38
61.11
Portability Score
47.10
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
36
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-12.38
PPG0.04
GF0.63
GA-0.03
PPG0.43
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.50
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.64
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.74
History Matches-7
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score7.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.67
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score14.01
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO-12.38
Current Opponent ELO12.38
Current ELO Difference-24.75
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Progresul Fundulea
W
Progresul Fundulea4–0Înainte Modelu31 Oct · home
Pick: Înainte Modelu 38% · missed W
Agigea2–4Progresul Fundulea24 Oct · away
Pick: Progresul Fundulea 51% · hit W
Progresul Fundulea6–0Portul Constanta17 Oct · home
Pick: Progresul Fundulea 63% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Dunarea Calarasi
D
Agricola Borcea0–0Dunarea Calarasi31 Oct · away
Pick: Agricola Borcea 39% · missed W
Dunarea Calarasi2–0FC Oţelul II23 Oct · home
Pick: Dunarea Calarasi 65% · hit D
Dunarea Calarasi1–1Unirea Braniştea16 Oct · home
Pick: Dunarea Calarasi 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Progresul Fundulea and Dunarea Calarasi meet in Liga III - Serie 4 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Progresul Fundulea win 32.7%, draw 23.6%, Dunarea Calarasi win 43.7%. The pick is Dunarea Calarasi win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.