ScoreProb
AFC Women's Champions League World Group Stage 2026

Ayeyawady W vs INAC Kobe Leonessa W

Ayeyawady W Home · Elo 1,520
Full time
0–2
Half time 0–1
Wed 4 Nov · 12:30 UTC
INAC Kobe Leonessa W Away · Elo 1,639
Thuwunna Stadium, Yangon Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: INAC Kobe Leonessa W win
Ayeyawady W win
22.3%
Draw
28.7%
INAC Kobe Leonessa W winPick Result
49.1%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

2 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickINAC Kobe Leonessa W win · 49.1%
What happenedINAC Kobe Leonessa W win · we gave it 49.1%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.3%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed
Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 53.0%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: INAC Kobe Leonessa W win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

49%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 2.0
on average
A pick at 49% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

30'
Yellow cardS. Miyake
35'
Yellow cardF. Mizuno
37'
GoalA. Manriki
43'
SubstitutionM. Takase off · A. Tsujisawa on
46'
SubstitutionF. Mizuno off · M. Kubota on
48'
GoalC. Minowa · assist M. Kubota
Yellow cardT. Nwe
59'
62'
SubstitutionS. Miyake off · A. Kuwahara on
76'
SubstitutionM. Ota off · R. Nakahira on
76'
SubstitutionC. Minowa off · K. Matsuura on
SubstitutionWin Win off · H. Fujii on
84'
SubstitutionT. Nwe off · L. Myint Mo on
84'
SubstitutionNaw Htet Htet Wai off · Khaing Zin Myint on
85'

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%

How much we know

Ayeyawady W history2 matches
INAC Kobe Leonessa W history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full time: 0–2Two of our three picks hit
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

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The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why INAC Kobe Leonessa W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • INAC Kobe Leonessa W are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,639 against 1,520. On rating alone INAC Kobe Leonessa W would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Ayeyawady W score more

    2.50 goals a game over 2 matches for Ayeyawady W, against 2.21 over 33 for INAC Kobe Leonessa W.

  • Ayeyawady W concede fewer

    Ayeyawady W concede 0.00 a game, INAC Kobe Leonessa W 0.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Ayeyawady W matches, against 55% for INAC Kobe Leonessa W. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ayeyawady W
INAC Kobe Leonessa W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.0
ELO
1638.7
2
ELO · Matches
33
1520.0
Current Team ELO
1638.7
1638.7
Current Opponent ELO
1520.0
-118.7
Current ELO Difference
118.7
0.34
Expected score
0.66
2
History Matches
33
0.50
Residual Mean
0.21
54.55
Overperformance
63.01
0.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
0.00
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
2.20
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
0.00
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
33
3.00
PPG
2.42
100.0%
Win rate
78.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
15.2%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
16
3.00
PPG
2.50
100.0%
Win rate
81.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
12.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
1
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.50
Goals for per game
2.21
100.0%
Scoring rate
87.9%
0.0%
BTTS rate
39.4%
4.00
Goals for per game
1.94
100.0%
Scoring rate
93.8%
0.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
2
History Matches
33
2.50
Goals Mean
2.21
1.50
Goals Std
1.61
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
87.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
30.3%
4.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.00
Goals against per game
0.58
0.0%
Conceding rate
51.5%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.56
0.0%
Conceding rate
43.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
2
History Matches
33
0.00
Conceded Mean
0.58
0.00
Conceded Std
0.60
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
6.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
56.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
48.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
33
0.00
Result entropy
0.59
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.84
100.0
Stability score
41.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
33
1
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
40.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.39
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.13
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
14
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.64
0
Long Rest History Matches
18
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.00
—
Portability PPG Range
0.01
—
Portability Score
99.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-118.7
PPG0.58
GF0.29
GA-0.58
PPG0.50
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate51.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate43.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-31
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate12.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate19.7%
Venue Goals Mean2.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.60
Clean-sheet rate51.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches-31
Result entropy-0.59
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score58.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches-31
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches2
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-18
Current Team ELO-118.7
Current Opponent ELO118.7
Current ELO Difference-237.4
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-31
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance-8.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ayeyawady W

L
Naegohyang W7–0Ayeyawady W1 Nov · away
Pick: Naegohyang W 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

INAC Kobe Leonessa W

W
INAC Kobe Leonessa W4–1Bam Khatoon W1 Nov · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 71% · hit
L
Urawa Reds W2–0INAC Kobe Leonessa W24 Oct · away
Pick: Urawa Reds W 37% · hit
L
INAC Kobe Leonessa W1–2JEF United W21 Oct · home
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 77% · missed
W
Vegalta Sendai W3–4INAC Kobe Leonessa W18 Oct · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 38% · hit
L
Elfen Saitama W2–1INAC Kobe Leonessa W30 Aug · away
Pick: INAC Kobe Leonessa W 58% · missed

Match report

Ayeyawady W and INAC Kobe Leonessa W finished 0–2 in AFC Women's Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Ayeyawady W win 22.3%, draw 28.7%, INAC Kobe Leonessa W win 49.1%. Two of the three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.