ScoreProb
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan Round 7 2026

Baku Sportinq vs Xankəndi FK

Baku Sportinq Home · Elo 1,531
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xankəndi FK Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Baku Sportinq win
Baku Sportinq winPick
65.1%
Draw
19.6%
Xankəndi FK win
15.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

Baku Sportinq history44 matches
Xankəndi FK history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Baku Sportinq are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Baku Sportinq are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,487. On rating alone Baku Sportinq would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Baku Sportinq score more

    1.20 goals a game over 44 matches for Baku Sportinq, against 1.00 over 1 for Xankəndi FK.

  • Baku Sportinq concede fewer

    Baku Sportinq concede 1.02 a game, Xankəndi FK 2.00.

  • Xankəndi FK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Baku Sportinq matches, against 100% for Xankəndi FK. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baku Sportinq
Xankəndi FK@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.0
ELO
1486.8
44
ELO · Matches
1
1531.0
Current Team ELO
1486.8
1486.8
Current Opponent ELO
1531.0
44.17
Current ELO Difference
-44.17
0.56
Expected score
0.44
44
History Matches
1
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.57
52.38
Overperformance
47.28
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.57
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
1
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.60
PPG
0.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
1
1.52
PPG
0.00
38.6%
Win rate
0.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
61.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
0
1.59
PPG
—
40.9%
Win rate
—
36.4%
Draw rate
—
22.7%
Loss rate
—
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
—
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
—
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
22
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
65.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.36
Goals for per game
—
68.2%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
44
History Matches
1
1.20
Goals Mean
1.00
1.12
Goals Std
—
65.9%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.36
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
2.00
65.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.86
Goals against per game
—
63.6%
Conceding rate
—
44
History Matches
1
1.02
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.14
Conceded Std
—
22.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
—
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
—
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
—
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
1
0.98
Result entropy
0.00
1.48
Goal Difference Std
—
1.53
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
1
14
Lead Matches
1
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.00
8
Trailing Matches
0
37.5%
Non-loss rate
—
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
166.9
Rest days
372.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.41
Portability PPG Std
—
0.81
Portability PPG Range
—
55.10
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO44.17
PPG1.52
GF0.20
GA-0.98
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches43
Clean-sheet rate34.1%
Failed-to-score rate34.1%
History Matches22
History Matches43
Goals Mean0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.34
Scored 2+ rate36.4%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
History Matches43
Conceded Mean-0.98
Clean-sheet rate34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.77
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
History Matches43
Result entropy0.98
Stability score-98.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.96
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate78.6%
Lead Points Retention0.86
Trailing Matches8
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-205.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches18
Current Team ELO44.17
Current Opponent ELO-44.17
Current ELO Difference88.35
Expected score0.13
History Matches43
Residual Mean0.61
Overperformance5.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.58

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Baku Sportinq

L
Kapaz3–1Baku Sportinq28 Oct · away
Pick: Kapaz 41% · hit
L
Şimal5–2Baku Sportinq22 Oct · away
Pick: Baku Sportinq 48% · missed
L
Baku Sportinq1–3MOIK16 Oct · home
Pick: Baku Sportinq 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Xankəndi FK

L
Xankəndi FK0–1Mingəçevir21 Oct · home
Pick: Mingəçevir 53% · hit
W
Xankəndi FK1–0Şahdağ15 Oct · home
Pick: Şahdağ 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Baku Sportinq and Xankəndi FK meet in Birinci Dasta on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Baku Sportinq win 65.1%, draw 19.6%, Xankəndi FK win 15.3%. The pick is Baku Sportinq win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.