ScoreProb
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan Round 7 2026

Səbail vs Cəbrayıl

Səbail Home · Elo 1,501
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cəbrayıl Away · Elo 1,393
ASCO Arena, Baku Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Səbail win
Səbail winPick
55.9%
Draw
21.6%
Cəbrayıl win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Səbail history46 matches
Cəbrayıl history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.9%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,755 matches.

Why Səbail are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Səbail are rated 108 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,393. On rating alone Səbail would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.22 goals a game over 46 matches for Səbail, against 1.18 over 44 for Cəbrayıl.

  • Səbail concede fewer

    Səbail concede 1.20 a game, Cəbrayıl 1.89.

  • Cəbrayıl games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Səbail matches, against 57% for Cəbrayıl. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Səbail
Cəbrayıl@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.1
ELO
1393.0
46
ELO · Matches
44
1501.1
Current Team ELO
1393.0
1393.0
Current Opponent ELO
1501.1
108.0
Current ELO Difference
-108.0
0.65
Expected score
0.35
46
History Matches
44
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.12
50.43
Overperformance
41.49
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
2.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
2.30
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
44
1.24
PPG
0.84
30.4%
Win rate
22.7%
32.6%
Draw rate
15.9%
37.0%
Loss rate
61.4%
60.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.29
PPG
0.30
33.3%
Win rate
4.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
17.4%
37.5%
Loss rate
78.3%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
1.18
63.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
37.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.65
58.3%
Scoring rate
47.8%
25.0%
BTTS rate
43.5%
46
History Matches
44
1.22
Goals Mean
1.18
1.37
Goals Std
1.34
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.1%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.89
56.5%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.13
45.8%
Conceding rate
87.0%
46
History Matches
44
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.39
Conceded Std
1.46
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.8%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
54.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
52.2%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
44
1.00
Result entropy
0.85
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.14
0.30
Stability score
15.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
44
12
Lead Matches
10
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.73
14
Trailing Matches
19
42.9%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
166.9
Rest days
167.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.04
1.41
Portability PPG Range
0.08
41.42
Portability Score
92.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO108.0
PPG0.40
GF0.04
GA-0.69
PPG0.99
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate41.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.81
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.69
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches2
Result entropy0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-15.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate21.7%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate42.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.67
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-51.48
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO108.0
Current Opponent ELO-108.0
Current ELO Difference216.1
Expected score0.30
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance8.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Səbail

L
Şahdağ1–0Səbail21 Oct · away
Pick: Səbail 40% · missed
W
Zaqatala1–3Səbail15 Oct · away
Pick: Səbail 47% · hit
D
Səbail1–1Karvan8 Oct · home
Pick: Səbail 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cəbrayıl

W
Cəbrayıl7–0Zaqatala22 Oct · home
Pick: Cəbrayıl 36% · hit
L
Karvan2–1Cəbrayıl16 Oct · away
Pick: Karvan 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Səbail and Cəbrayıl meet in Birinci Dasta on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at ASCO Arena, Baku. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Səbail win 55.9%, draw 21.6%, Cəbrayıl win 22.5%. The pick is Səbail win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.