ScoreProb
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan Round 7 2026

Karvan vs Şimal

Karvan Home · Elo 1,377
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Şimal Away · Elo 1,420
Yevlakh City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karvan win
Karvan winPick
55.8%
Draw
19.5%
Şimal win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.1%
No50.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%

How much we know

Karvan history52 matches
Şimal history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Karvan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Şimal are rated 43 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,420 against 1,377. On rating alone Şimal would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Karvan score more

    0.96 goals a game over 52 matches for Karvan, against 0.86 over 29 for Şimal.

  • Karvan concede fewer

    Karvan concede 1.83 a game, Şimal 2.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Karvan matches, against 52% for Şimal. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 28 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karvan
Şimal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1377.0
ELO
1420.1
52
ELO · Matches
29
1377.0
Current Team ELO
1420.1
1420.1
Current Opponent ELO
1377.0
-43.12
Current ELO Difference
43.12
0.44
Expected score
0.56
52
History Matches
29
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.13
42.12
Overperformance
42.46
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.84
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
29
0.75
PPG
0.83
15.4%
Win rate
20.7%
28.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
55.8%
Loss rate
58.6%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
21.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
13
0.96
PPG
0.77
22.2%
Win rate
23.1%
29.6%
Draw rate
7.7%
48.1%
Loss rate
69.2%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
69.2%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
27
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
0.86
59.6%
Scoring rate
44.8%
53.8%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.23
66.7%
Scoring rate
53.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
53.8%
52
History Matches
29
0.96
Goals Mean
0.86
1.13
Goals Std
1.22
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
44.8%
19.2%
Scored 2+ rate
20.7%
11.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.8%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.83
Goals against per game
2.14
90.4%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.59
Goals against per game
2.92
85.2%
Conceding rate
92.3%
52
History Matches
29
1.83
Conceded Mean
2.14
1.22
Conceded Std
1.63
57.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.6%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.4%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
2.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
9.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
29
0.88
Result entropy
0.88
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.89
11.50
Stability score
12.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
29
11
Lead Matches
3
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.56
20
Trailing Matches
14
30.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.28
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
165.0
Rest days
162.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
26
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.46
Portability PPG Std
—
0.92
Portability PPG Range
—
52.07
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-43.12
PPG-0.08
GF0.10
GA-0.31
PPG0.19
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches23
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate14.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches23
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches23
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-0.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.86
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate21.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-43.12
Current Opponent ELO43.12
Current ELO Difference-86.24
Expected score-0.12
History Matches23
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karvan

W
Zangazur (Am)1–4Karvan29 Oct · away
Pick: Zangazur (Am) 38% · missed
L
MOIK3–1Karvan22 Oct · away
Pick: Karvan 41% · missed
W
Karvan2–1Cəbrayıl16 Oct · home
Pick: Karvan 53% · hit
D
Səbail1–1Karvan8 Oct · away
Pick: Səbail 43% · missed
L
Şahdağ2–0Karvan9 Sep · away
Pick: Şahdağ 47% · hit

Şimal

L
Şimal0–6Araz27 Oct · home
Pick: Araz 45% · hit
W
Şimal5–2Baku Sportinq22 Oct · home
Pick: Baku Sportinq 48% · missed
W
Mingəçevir1–4Şimal15 Oct · away
Pick: Mingəçevir 67% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karvan and Şimal meet in Birinci Dasta on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Yevlakh City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Karvan win 55.8%, draw 19.5%, Şimal win 24.7%. The pick is Karvan win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.3%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.