ScoreProb
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan Round 7 2026

Zaqatala vs MOIK

Zaqatala Home · Elo 1,415
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
MOIK Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zaqatala win
Zaqatala winPick
38.2%
Draw
26.3%
MOIK win
35.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%

How much we know

Zaqatala history44 matches
MOIK history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Zaqatala are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MOIK are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,455 against 1,415. On rating alone MOIK would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • MOIK score more

    1.02 goals a game over 44 matches for Zaqatala, against 1.16 over 43 for MOIK.

  • Defences are close

    Zaqatala concede 1.48 a game, MOIK 1.63.

  • MOIK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Zaqatala matches, against 56% for MOIK. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zaqatala
MOIK@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1415.0
ELO
1455.3
44
ELO · Matches
43
1415.0
Current Team ELO
1455.3
1455.3
Current Opponent ELO
1415.0
-40.30
Current ELO Difference
40.30
0.44
Expected score
0.56
44
History Matches
43
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.05
43.39
Overperformance
46.71
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.20
0.70
Goals for per game
1.40
2.10
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.97
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
43
1.05
PPG
1.14
27.3%
Win rate
30.2%
22.7%
Draw rate
23.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
46.5%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
74.4%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
1.41
PPG
0.71
40.9%
Win rate
14.3%
18.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
40.9%
Loss rate
57.1%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.16
56.8%
Scoring rate
65.1%
40.9%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.27
Goals for per game
0.90
68.2%
Scoring rate
61.9%
45.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
44
History Matches
43
1.02
Goals Mean
1.16
1.25
Goals Std
1.14
56.8%
Scored 1+ rate
65.1%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.9%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.48
Goals against per game
1.63
72.7%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.86
72.7%
Conceding rate
90.5%
44
History Matches
43
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.48
Conceded Std
1.29
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.9%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.9%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.9%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
31.8%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
43
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.74
5.55
Stability score
3.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
43
8
Lead Matches
9
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.85
17
Trailing Matches
17
23.5%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
167.0
Rest days
167.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.16
91.91
Portability Score
86.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-40.30
PPG-0.09
GF-0.14
GA-0.15
PPG0.69
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.95
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score1.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score5.38
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-40.30
Current Opponent ELO40.30
Current ELO Difference-80.60
Expected score-0.12
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zaqatala

L
Marafon1–0Zaqatala27 Oct · away
Pick: Marafon 38% · hit
L
Cəbrayıl7–0Zaqatala22 Oct · away
Pick: Cəbrayıl 36% · hit
L
Zaqatala1–3Səbail15 Oct · home
Pick: Səbail 47% · hit
L
Şahdağ6–0Zaqatala7 Oct · away
Pick: Şahdağ 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MOIK

L
MOIK1–9Şahdağ28 Oct · home
Pick: MOIK 48% · missed
W
MOIK3–1Karvan22 Oct · home
Pick: Karvan 41% · missed
W
Baku Sportinq1–3MOIK16 Oct · away
Pick: Baku Sportinq 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zaqatala and MOIK meet in Birinci Dasta on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Zaqatala win 38.2%, draw 26.3%, MOIK win 35.5%. The pick is Zaqatala win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.0%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.