ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Glenavon FC vs Institute

Glenavon FC Home · Elo 1,414
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Institute Away · Elo 1,509
Mourneview Park, Lurgan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Glenavon FC win
Glenavon FC winPick
52.4%
Draw
20.9%
Institute win
26.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Glenavon FC history68 matches
Institute history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Glenavon FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Institute are rated 95 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,414. On rating alone Institute would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Institute score more

    1.16 goals a game over 68 matches for Glenavon FC, against 1.50 over 64 for Institute.

  • Institute concede fewer

    Glenavon FC concede 1.65 a game, Institute 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Glenavon FC matches, against 61% for Institute. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Glenavon FC
Institute
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1414.0
ELO
1509.4
68
ELO · Matches
64
1414.0
Current Team ELO
1509.4
1509.4
Current Opponent ELO
1414.0
-95.39
Current ELO Difference
95.39
0.37
Expected score
0.63
68
History Matches
64
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
44.84
Overperformance
50.35
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.90
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
64
0.96
PPG
1.41
26.5%
Win rate
39.1%
16.2%
Draw rate
23.4%
57.4%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.03
PPG
1.33
31.3%
Win rate
39.4%
9.4%
Draw rate
15.2%
59.4%
Loss rate
45.5%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.50
60.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
48.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.13
Goals for per game
1.52
56.3%
Scoring rate
75.8%
43.8%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.75
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.16
Goals Mean
1.50
1.20
Goals Std
1.30
60.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.65
Goals against per game
1.38
86.8%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.45
87.5%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
64
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.17
Conceded Std
1.31
48.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
64
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.80
12.13
Stability score
2.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
61
17
Lead Matches
17
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.84
30
Trailing Matches
14
16.7%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
51
Normal Rest History Matches
51
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
15
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.47
Portability PPG Range
0.55
46.76
Portability Score
67.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-95.39
PPG-0.45
GF-0.34
GA0.27
PPG0.75
PPG-0.30
PPG0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate19.5%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score9.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.91
Portability Score-20.55
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-95.39
Current Opponent ELO95.39
Current ELO Difference-190.8
Expected score-0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Glenavon FC

W
Queen's University2–4Glenavon FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Glenavon FC 37% · hit
W
Strabane Athletic0–5Glenavon FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Glenavon FC 51% · hit
W
Glenavon FC4–0H&W Welders16 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Institute

D
Institute1–1Moyola Park31 Oct · home
Pick: Institute 46% · missed
L
Institute0–3Loughgall20 Oct · home
Pick: Institute 38% · missed
W
Ards0–2Institute16 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 54% · missed
L
Institute1–3Newry City AFC29 Aug · home
Pick: Institute 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Glenavon FC and Institute meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Mourneview Park, Lurgan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Glenavon FC win 52.4%, draw 20.9%, Institute win 26.8%. The pick is Glenavon FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.