ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Armagh City vs Newington Youth

Armagh City Home · Elo 1,316
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newington Youth Away · Elo 1,545
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newington Youth win
Armagh City win
12.5%
Draw
13.1%
Newington Youth winPick
74.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.4%
Under 2.533.6%

How much we know

Armagh City history59 matches
Newington Youth history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.4%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Newington Youth are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Newington Youth are rated 229 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,316. On rating alone Newington Youth would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Newington Youth score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 59 matches for Armagh City, against 2.10 over 63 for Newington Youth.

  • Newington Youth concede fewer

    Armagh City concede 2.75 a game, Newington Youth 1.71.

  • Newington Youth games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Armagh City matches, against 78% for Newington Youth. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Armagh City
Newington Youth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1316.4
ELO
1545.0
59
ELO · Matches
63
1316.4
Current Team ELO
1545.0
1545.0
Current Opponent ELO
1316.4
-228.6
Current ELO Difference
228.6
0.21
Expected score
0.79
59
History Matches
63
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.03
38.80
Overperformance
52.11
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.70
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
63
0.64
PPG
1.57
15.3%
Win rate
46.0%
18.6%
Draw rate
19.0%
66.1%
Loss rate
34.9%
84.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
69.5%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
44.1%
Over 3.5 rate
54.0%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
0.73
PPG
1.12
16.7%
Win rate
26.5%
23.3%
Draw rate
32.4%
60.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
2.10
61.0%
Scoring rate
90.5%
54.2%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.79
63.3%
Scoring rate
85.3%
53.3%
BTTS rate
76.5%
0.75
Goals for per game
3.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
63
1.02
Goals Mean
2.10
1.16
Goals Std
1.23
61.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.5%
20.3%
Scored 2+ rate
68.3%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
31.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.75
Goals against per game
1.71
86.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.91
83.3%
Conceding rate
85.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
63
2.75
Conceded Mean
1.71
2.30
Conceded Std
1.37
69.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.8%
45.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
2.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
39.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.5%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
63
0.80
Result entropy
0.95
2.74
Goal Difference Std
1.93
20.48
Stability score
5.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
61
13
Lead Matches
22
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.54
Lead Points Retention
0.89
27
Trailing Matches
19
14.8%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.93
1.22
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
1.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
46
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
2.50
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.35
Portability PPG Range
1.50
75.39
Portability Score
48.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-228.6
PPG-0.93
GF-1.08
GA1.03
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.38
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate29.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate22.0%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-1.08
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.48
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean1.03
Conceded Std0.93
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate18.7%
Conceded 3+ rate17.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.81
Stability score15.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.40
Lead Points Retention-0.36
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.63
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-1.15
Portability Score27.20
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.18
Current Team ELO-228.6
Current Opponent ELO228.6
Current ELO Difference-457.3
Expected score-0.58
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-13.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Armagh City

W
Ballinamallard United0–1Armagh City31 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 61% · missed
D
Armagh City1–1Ards24 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 65% · missed
L
Armagh City1–3H&W Welders20 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 63% · hit
L
Armagh City1–3Annagh United17 Oct · home
Pick: Annagh United 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newington Youth

W
Newry City AFC0–2Newington Youth23 Oct · away
Pick: Newington Youth 56% · hit
L
Newington Youth1–3Ballymena United20 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 41% · hit
W
Moyola Park2–3Newington Youth16 Oct · away
Pick: Newington Youth 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Armagh City and Newington Youth meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Armagh City win 12.5%, draw 13.1%, Newington Youth win 74.4%. The pick is Newington Youth win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.4%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.