ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Dundela vs Loughgall

Dundela Home · Elo 1,378
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Loughgall Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Loughgall win
Dundela win
33.3%
Draw
22.6%
Loughgall winPick
44.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Dundela history65 matches
Loughgall history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Loughgall are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Loughgall are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,378. On rating alone Loughgall would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.18 goals a game over 65 matches for Dundela, against 1.29 over 65 for Loughgall.

  • Loughgall concede fewer

    Dundela concede 2.12 a game, Loughgall 1.32.

  • Dundela games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Dundela matches, against 52% for Loughgall. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dundela
Loughgall
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1378.3
ELO
1528.9
65
ELO · Matches
65
1378.3
Current Team ELO
1528.9
1528.9
Current Opponent ELO
1378.3
-150.6
Current ELO Difference
150.6
0.30
Expected score
0.70
65
History Matches
65
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
43.21
Overperformance
52.09
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
0.74
PPG
1.35
13.8%
Win rate
35.4%
32.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
53.8%
Loss rate
35.4%
90.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.3%
44.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
0.94
PPG
1.26
18.2%
Win rate
29.0%
39.4%
Draw rate
38.7%
42.4%
Loss rate
32.3%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.29
76.9%
Scoring rate
73.8%
69.2%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.16
84.8%
Scoring rate
64.5%
75.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
65
1.18
Goals Mean
1.29
0.97
Goals Std
1.03
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
27.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
10.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.12
Goals against per game
1.32
90.8%
Conceding rate
73.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.16
87.9%
Conceding rate
71.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
65
History Matches
65
2.12
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.20
Conceded Std
1.16
72.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.9%
35.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
9.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
9.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.64
11.51
Stability score
0.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
62
17
Lead Matches
14
29.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.45
Lead Points Retention
0.83
27
Trailing Matches
22
22.2%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
51
Normal Rest History Matches
46
0.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
13
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.76
0.40
Portability PPG Range
2.00
75.91
Portability Score
39.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-150.6
PPG-0.62
GF-0.11
GA0.80
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.32
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.80
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate35.4%
Conceded 3+ rate21.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score11.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.49
Lead Points Retention-0.38
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate2.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.59
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.60
Portability Score36.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-150.6
Current Opponent ELO150.6
Current ELO Difference-301.2
Expected score-0.41
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dundela

L
Dundela1–4Moyola Park20 Oct · home
Pick: Dundela 55% · missed
L
Dundela0–1Rathfriland17 Oct · home
Pick: Dundela 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Loughgall

L
Loughgall0–3Annagh United31 Oct · home
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed
W
H&W Welders1–2Loughgall24 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 51% · missed
W
Institute0–3Loughgall20 Oct · away
Pick: Institute 38% · missed
D
Strabane Athletic1–1Loughgall16 Oct · away
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dundela and Loughgall meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dundela win 33.3%, draw 22.6%, Loughgall win 44.1%. The pick is Loughgall win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.