ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

H&W Welders vs Ards

H&W Welders Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ards Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: H&W Welders win
H&W Welders winPick
51.1%
Draw
24.5%
Ards win
24.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

H&W Welders history71 matches
Ards history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why H&W Welders are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • H&W Welders are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,491. On rating alone H&W Welders would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • H&W Welders score more

    2.10 goals a game over 71 matches for H&W Welders, against 1.47 over 64 for Ards.

  • Defences are close

    H&W Welders concede 1.32 a game, Ards 1.28.

  • H&W Welders games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of H&W Welders matches, against 53% for Ards. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
H&W Welders
Ards
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.2
ELO
1490.8
71
ELO · Matches
64
1536.2
Current Team ELO
1490.8
1490.8
Current Opponent ELO
1536.2
45.36
Current ELO Difference
-45.36
0.56
Expected score
0.44
71
History Matches
64
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.02
52.46
Overperformance
48.48
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
64
1.65
PPG
1.44
47.9%
Win rate
40.6%
21.1%
Draw rate
21.9%
31.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
88.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
73.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
1.69
PPG
1.42
51.3%
Win rate
41.7%
15.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
41.7%
89.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
2.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.47
83.1%
Scoring rate
71.9%
56.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.28
Goals for per game
1.53
87.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
53.8%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
64
2.10
Goals Mean
1.47
1.83
Goals Std
1.37
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
57.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
38.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.28
69.0%
Conceding rate
71.9%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.22
64.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
64
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
64
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.51
Goal Difference Std
1.92
4.96
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
62
28
Lead Matches
20
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.90
22
Trailing Matches
18
36.4%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
11
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.75
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.54
Portability PPG Range
1.63
50.36
Portability Score
43.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO45.36
PPG0.21
GF0.63
GA0.04
PPG0.50
PPG0.28
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate11.2%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate19.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score2.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate7.9%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score7.00
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO45.36
Current Opponent ELO-45.36
Current ELO Difference90.73
Expected score0.13
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

H&W Welders

L
H&W Welders1–2Loughgall24 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 51% · missed
W
Armagh City1–3H&W Welders20 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 63% · hit
L
Glenavon FC4–0H&W Welders16 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ards

D
Ards1–1Newry City AFC31 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 62% · missed
D
Armagh City1–1Ards24 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 65% · missed
L
Ards0–2Institute16 Oct · home
Pick: Ards 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

H&W Welders and Ards meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: H&W Welders win 51.1%, draw 24.5%, Ards win 24.4%. The pick is H&W Welders win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.