ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Bałtyk Koszalin vs Kluczevia Stargard

Bałtyk Koszalin Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kluczevia Stargard Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard win
Bałtyk Koszalin win
24.2%
Draw
20.9%
Kluczevia Stargard winPick
54.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

Bałtyk Koszalin history6 matches
Kluczevia Stargard history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kluczevia Stargard are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kluczevia Stargard are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,499. On rating alone Kluczevia Stargard would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Kluczevia Stargard score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 6 matches for Bałtyk Koszalin, against 1.81 over 42 for Kluczevia Stargard.

  • Defences are close

    Bałtyk Koszalin concede 1.33 a game, Kluczevia Stargard 1.40.

  • Kluczevia Stargard games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Bałtyk Koszalin matches, against 79% for Kluczevia Stargard. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bałtyk Koszalin
Kluczevia Stargard
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.7
ELO
1524.5
6
ELO · Matches
42
1498.7
Current Team ELO
1524.5
1524.5
Current Opponent ELO
1498.7
-25.74
Current ELO Difference
25.74
0.46
Expected score
0.54
6
History Matches
42
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.76
Overperformance
52.03
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
6
Matches
10
1.33
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.33
Goals against per game
1.90
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
42
1.33
PPG
1.48
33.3%
Win rate
42.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
19.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
21
0.33
PPG
1.48
0.0%
Win rate
42.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
19.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
38.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
3
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.81
83.3%
Scoring rate
88.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
64.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.10
66.7%
Scoring rate
95.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
71.4%
0.80
Goals for per game
3.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
6
History Matches
42
1.00
Goals Mean
1.81
0.58
Goals Std
1.16
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.1%
16.7%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.40
83.3%
Conceding rate
71.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.52
100.0%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
6
History Matches
42
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Conceded Std
1.18
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.2%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
42
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.84
0.00
Stability score
4.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
40
2
Lead Matches
14
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.81
1
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
2
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.37
—
Portability PPG Range
0.84
—
Portability Score
57.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-25.74
PPG-0.14
GF-0.81
GA-0.07
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.14
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.37
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate28.6%
History Matches-36
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.38
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-1.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-36
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score-4.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-25.74
Current Opponent ELO25.74
Current ELO Difference-51.48
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-36
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bałtyk Koszalin

D
Wda Świecie1–1Bałtyk Koszalin31 Oct · away
Pick: Wda Świecie 65% · missed
L
Bałtyk Koszalin2–3Elana Toruń24 Oct · home
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 38% · missed
W
Noteć Czarnków0–3Bałtyk Koszalin17 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 62% · missed
W
Bałtyk Koszalin2–0Victoria Września29 Aug · home
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kluczevia Stargard

W
Kluczevia Stargard1–0Kotwica Kórnik31 Oct · home
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 66% · hit
D
Kluczevia Stargard2–2Flota Świnoujście24 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 38% · missed
W
Kluczevia Stargard3–2Luzino17 Oct · home
Pick: Luzino 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bałtyk Koszalin and Kluczevia Stargard meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bałtyk Koszalin win 24.2%, draw 20.9%, Kluczevia Stargard win 54.9%. The pick is Kluczevia Stargard win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.