ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Elana Toruń

Chemik Bydgoszcz Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Elana Toruń Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz win
Chemik Bydgoszcz winPick
40.5%
Draw
27.2%
Elana Toruń win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.4%
No34.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Chemik Bydgoszcz history11 matches
Elana Toruń history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chemik Bydgoszcz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chemik Bydgoszcz are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,517 against 1,490. On rating alone Chemik Bydgoszcz would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Chemik Bydgoszcz score more

    2.18 goals a game over 11 matches for Chemik Bydgoszcz, against 1.56 over 61 for Elana Toruń.

  • Defences are close

    Chemik Bydgoszcz concede 1.64 a game, Elana Toruń 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Chemik Bydgoszcz matches, against 61% for Elana Toruń. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chemik Bydgoszcz
Elana Toruń
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.2
ELO
1490.5
11
ELO · Matches
61
1517.2
Current Team ELO
1490.5
1490.5
Current Opponent ELO
1517.2
26.74
Current ELO Difference
-26.74
0.54
Expected score
0.46
11
History Matches
61
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
52.49
Overperformance
49.67
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.80
2.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
11
Matches
61
1.64
PPG
1.39
45.5%
Win rate
36.1%
27.3%
Draw rate
31.1%
27.3%
Loss rate
32.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.3%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
63.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.0%
2.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
29
1.60
PPG
1.55
40.0%
Win rate
41.4%
40.0%
Draw rate
31.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
27.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
5
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.18
Goals for per game
1.56
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.4%
72.7%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.62
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
80.0%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
61
2.18
Goals Mean
1.56
1.75
Goals Std
1.31
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.2%
36.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.64
Goals against per game
1.61
72.7%
Conceding rate
78.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.52
80.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
61
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.37
Conceded Std
1.30
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.3%
36.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
11
History Matches
61
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
2.46
Goal Difference Std
1.85
2.87
Stability score
0.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
60
4
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.80
3
Trailing Matches
20
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
6
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
3
Long Rest History Matches
26
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.83
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.65
Portability PPG Range
0.80
37.74
Portability Score
62.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
11
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO26.74
PPG0.24
GF0.62
GA0.03
PPG-0.40
PPG0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-50
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-50
Goals Mean0.62
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate24.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate18.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches-50
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-50
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score2.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-51
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-51
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-24.47
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO26.74
Current Opponent ELO-26.74
Current ELO Difference53.49
Expected score0.08
History Matches-50
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance2.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chemik Bydgoszcz

W
Noteć Czarnków1–4Chemik Bydgoszcz31 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 64% · missed
L
Chemik Bydgoszcz1–3Unia Swarzędz24 Oct · home
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 36% · missed
L
Grom Nowy Staw2–0Chemik Bydgoszcz17 Oct · away
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 45% · hit
L
Chemik Bydgoszcz0–3Piast Gliwice1 Sep · home
Pick: Piast Gliwice 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Elana Toruń

D
Elana Toruń0–0Victoria Września31 Oct · home
Pick: Elana Toruń 61% · missed
W
Bałtyk Koszalin2–3Elana Toruń24 Oct · away
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 38% · missed
W
Elana Toruń3–1Kotwica Kórnik17 Oct · home
Pick: Elana Toruń 65% · hit
L
Kalisz5–1Elana Toruń29 Aug · away
Pick: Kalisz 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chemik Bydgoszcz and Elana Toruń meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chemik Bydgoszcz win 40.5%, draw 27.2%, Elana Toruń win 32.3%. The pick is Chemik Bydgoszcz win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 65.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.