ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Gedania Gdansk vs Grom Nowy Staw

Gedania Gdansk Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grom Nowy Staw Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gedania Gdansk win
Gedania Gdansk winPick
51.9%
Draw
19.2%
Grom Nowy Staw win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.6%
No35.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.3%
Under 2.529.7%

How much we know

Gedania Gdansk history25 matches
Grom Nowy Staw history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Gedania Gdansk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,471 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Grom Nowy Staw score more

    1.48 goals a game over 25 matches for Gedania Gdansk, against 2.25 over 8 for Grom Nowy Staw.

  • Grom Nowy Staw concede fewer

    Gedania Gdansk concede 2.12 a game, Grom Nowy Staw 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Gedania Gdansk matches, against 63% for Grom Nowy Staw. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gedania Gdansk
Grom Nowy Staw
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.1
ELO
1487.7
25
ELO · Matches
8
1471.1
Current Team ELO
1487.7
1487.7
Current Opponent ELO
1471.1
-16.57
Current ELO Difference
16.57
0.48
Expected score
0.52
25
History Matches
8
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.05
46.20
Overperformance
48.49
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
8
1.20
PPG
1.25
2.00
Goals for per game
2.25
2.60
Goals against per game
1.75
30.0%
Win rate
37.5%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.25
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.89
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
8
1.20
PPG
1.25
36.0%
Win rate
37.5%
12.0%
Draw rate
12.5%
52.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
3
1.45
PPG
2.00
45.5%
Win rate
66.7%
9.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
45.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
11
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
2.25
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
44.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.73
Goals for per game
2.00
72.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
25
History Matches
8
1.48
Goals Mean
2.25
1.50
Goals Std
1.20
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.12
Goals against per game
1.75
84.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
2.18
Goals against per game
1.33
90.9%
Conceding rate
33.3%
2.20
Goals against per game
2.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
25
History Matches
8
2.12
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.51
Conceded Std
1.64
64.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
36.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
2.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
8
0.88
Result entropy
0.89
2.45
Goal Difference Std
2.18
12.41
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
24
Eligible Matches
7
7
Lead Matches
3
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.44
11
Trailing Matches
2
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
12
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.25
11
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.87
0.20
Portability PPG Range
1.73
84.14
Portability Score
36.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-16.57
PPG-0.05
GF-0.77
GA0.37
PPG0.60
PPG-0.55
PPG0.60
PPG-0.05
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate40.0%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.58
Failed-to-score rate27.3%
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.40
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score1.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate38.1%
Lead Points Retention0.37
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.77
Portability PPG Range-1.53
Portability Score47.55
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Current Team ELO-16.57
Current Opponent ELO16.57
Current ELO Difference-33.14
Expected score-0.05
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-2.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gedania Gdansk

D
Gedania Gdansk0–0Kalisz31 Oct · home
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 39% · missed
W
Lipno Stęszew1–2Gedania Gdansk24 Oct · away
Pick: Lipno Stęszew 42% · missed
D
Gedania Gdansk2–2Stargard Szczeciński17 Oct · home
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Grom Nowy Staw

L
Grom Nowy Staw1–2Lipno Stęszew31 Oct · home
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 47% · missed
L
Stargard Szczeciński3–1Grom Nowy Staw24 Oct · away
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 64% · hit
W
Grom Nowy Staw2–0Chemik Bydgoszcz17 Oct · home
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 45% · hit
W
Lech Poznań II2–4Grom Nowy Staw29 Aug · away
Pick: Lech Poznań II 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gedania Gdansk and Grom Nowy Staw meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gedania Gdansk win 51.9%, draw 19.2%, Grom Nowy Staw win 28.9%. The pick is Gedania Gdansk win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.3%. Both teams to score: 64.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.