ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Stargard Szczeciński vs Noteć Czarnków

Stargard Szczeciński Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Noteć Czarnków Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stargard Szczeciński win
Stargard Szczeciński winPick
51.3%
Draw
22.0%
Noteć Czarnków win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.7%
Under 2.536.3%

How much we know

Stargard Szczeciński history64 matches
Noteć Czarnków history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stargard Szczeciński are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,523 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Stargard Szczeciński score more

    1.89 goals a game over 64 matches for Stargard Szczeciński, against 1.58 over 57 for Noteć Czarnków.

  • Defences are close

    Stargard Szczeciński concede 1.53 a game, Noteć Czarnków 1.56.

  • Stargard Szczeciński games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Stargard Szczeciński matches, against 56% for Noteć Czarnków. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stargard Szczeciński
Noteć Czarnków
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.6
ELO
1515.3
64
ELO · Matches
57
1522.6
Current Team ELO
1515.3
1515.3
Current Opponent ELO
1522.6
7.26
Current ELO Difference
-7.26
0.51
Expected score
0.49
64
History Matches
57
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.74
Overperformance
50.24
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
57
1.47
PPG
1.33
42.2%
Win rate
38.6%
20.3%
Draw rate
17.5%
37.5%
Loss rate
43.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
68.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
48.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
32
1.62
PPG
1.16
47.1%
Win rate
31.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
21.9%
32.4%
Loss rate
46.9%
97.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
34
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.89
Goals for per game
1.58
81.3%
Scoring rate
64.9%
60.9%
BTTS rate
43.9%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.28
88.2%
Scoring rate
59.4%
61.8%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
64
History Matches
57
1.89
Goals Mean
1.58
1.45
Goals Std
1.63
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
64.9%
51.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
34.4%
Scored 3+ rate
29.8%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
1.56
75.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.78
73.5%
Conceding rate
71.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
64
History Matches
57
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.30
Conceded Std
1.48
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.1%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.17
Goal Difference Std
2.44
3.91
Stability score
5.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
51
27
Lead Matches
15
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
1.00
18
Trailing Matches
19
22.2%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
6
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.55
43.61
Portability Score
68.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.26
PPG0.14
GF0.31
GA-0.03
PPG-0.40
PPG0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate16.3%
Scored 2+ rate7.7%
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches7
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-1.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.60
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-25.04
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO7.26
Current Opponent ELO-7.26
Current ELO Difference14.51
Expected score0.02
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stargard Szczeciński

D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Stargard Szczeciński31 Oct · away
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 41% · missed
W
Stargard Szczeciński3–1Grom Nowy Staw24 Oct · home
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 64% · hit
D
Gedania Gdansk2–2Stargard Szczeciński17 Oct · away
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Noteć Czarnków

L
Noteć Czarnków1–4Chemik Bydgoszcz31 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 64% · missed
W
Victoria Września0–1Noteć Czarnków24 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 53% · hit
L
Noteć Czarnków0–3Bałtyk Koszalin17 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stargard Szczeciński and Noteć Czarnków meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stargard Szczeciński win 51.3%, draw 22.0%, Noteć Czarnków win 26.6%. The pick is Stargard Szczeciński win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.7%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.