ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

Banants II vs Ararat II

Banants II Home · Elo 1,483
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ararat II Away · Elo 1,415
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Banants II win
Banants II winPick
58.7%
Draw
17.2%
Ararat II win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

Banants II history46 matches
Ararat II history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Banants II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Banants II are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,415. On rating alone Banants II would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Banants II score more

    1.59 goals a game over 46 matches for Banants II, against 1.34 over 44 for Ararat II.

  • Banants II concede fewer

    Banants II concede 1.74 a game, Ararat II 2.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of Banants II matches, against 68% for Ararat II. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Banants II
Ararat II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.9
ELO
1414.6
46
ELO · Matches
44
1482.9
Current Team ELO
1414.6
1414.6
Current Opponent ELO
1482.9
68.28
Current ELO Difference
-68.28
0.60
Expected score
0.40
46
History Matches
44
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.09
48.68
Overperformance
43.69
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.00
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
3.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.30
1.70
Goals for per game
0.80
2.30
Goals against per game
3.50
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
44
1.28
PPG
1.05
32.6%
Win rate
31.8%
30.4%
Draw rate
9.1%
37.0%
Loss rate
59.1%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
45.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
21
1.48
PPG
1.00
34.8%
Win rate
28.6%
43.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
81.0%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
23
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.34
76.1%
Scoring rate
70.5%
63.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.38
82.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
73.9%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
44
1.59
Goals Mean
1.34
1.41
Goals Std
1.19
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
45.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.9%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
2.07
82.6%
Conceding rate
88.6%
1.52
Goals against per game
2.24
82.6%
Conceding rate
95.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
44
1.74
Conceded Mean
2.07
1.39
Conceded Std
1.51
47.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.8%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
4.8%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
44
1.00
Result entropy
0.81
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.14
0.30
Stability score
18.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
11
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
5.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.81
Rest days
80.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.25
PPG
0.00
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.25
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.33
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.44
Portability PPG Range
1.31
71.94
Portability Score
48.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO68.28
PPG0.24
GF0.25
GA-0.33
PPG1.25
PPG0.48
PPG1.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches2
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-18.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.08
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score23.63
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.57
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO68.28
Current Opponent ELO-68.28
Current ELO Difference136.6
Expected score0.19
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Banants II

L
Araks Ararat4–1Banants II2 Nov · away
Pick: Araks Ararat 47% · hit
L
Banants II1–2Andranik19 Oct · home
Pick: Andranik 60% · hit
L
Sardarapat 22–0Banants II14 Oct · away
Pick: Banants II 39% · missed
D
Banants II1–1Bentonit Ijevan8 Oct · home
Pick: Bentonit Ijevan 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ararat II

L
Ararat II1–3Mika2 Nov · home
Pick: Mika 49% · hit
W
BKMA II0–1Ararat II29 Oct · away
Pick: BKMA II 86% · missed
D
Ararat-Armenia II3–3Ararat II19 Oct · away
Pick: Ararat-Armenia II 48% · missed
W
Ararat II5–1Lernayin Artsakh14 Oct · home
Pick: Lernayin Artsakh 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Banants II and Ararat II meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Banants II win 58.7%, draw 17.2%, Ararat II win 24.1%. The pick is Banants II win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.