ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

BKMA II vs Noah II

BKMA II Home · Elo 1,651
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Noah II Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BKMA II win
BKMA II winPick
81.0%
Draw
11.4%
Noah II win
7.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.6%
Under 2.525.4%

How much we know

BKMA II history43 matches
Noah II history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (81.0%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why BKMA II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • BKMA II are rated 199 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,453. On rating alone BKMA II would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.

  • BKMA II score far more

    2.58 goals a game over 43 matches for BKMA II, against 1.34 over 44 for Noah II.

  • BKMA II concede fewer

    BKMA II concede 0.93 a game, Noah II 1.86.

  • BKMA II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of BKMA II matches, against 55% for Noah II. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BKMA II
Noah II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.5
ELO
1452.7
43
ELO · Matches
44
1651.5
Current Team ELO
1452.7
1452.7
Current Opponent ELO
1651.5
198.8
Current ELO Difference
-198.8
0.76
Expected score
0.24
43
History Matches
44
0.17
Residual Mean
-0.06
61.37
Overperformance
46.02
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.10
2.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
44
2.30
PPG
1.20
72.1%
Win rate
31.8%
14.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
14.0%
Loss rate
43.2%
83.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
62.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
46.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
23
2.45
PPG
1.22
80.0%
Win rate
34.8%
5.0%
Draw rate
17.4%
15.0%
Loss rate
47.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
20
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.58
Goals for per game
1.34
88.4%
Scoring rate
65.9%
44.2%
BTTS rate
47.7%
3.20
Goals for per game
1.17
85.0%
Scoring rate
69.6%
25.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
43
History Matches
44
2.58
Goals Mean
1.34
1.96
Goals Std
1.59
88.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.9%
72.1%
Scored 2+ rate
31.8%
46.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
3.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.86
51.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.96
35.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
44
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.17
Conceded Std
1.75
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
65.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.1%
65.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
44
0.72
Result entropy
0.98
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.49
28.50
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
42
23
Lead Matches
11
95.7%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.70
8
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.79
Rest days
81.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.11
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.44
0.21
Portability PPG Range
0.94
85.26
Portability Score
53.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO198.8
PPG1.10
GF1.24
GA-0.93
PPG1.25
PPG1.23
PPG0.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate43.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Goals Mean1.24
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate22.5%
Scored 2+ rate40.3%
Scored 3+ rate30.6%
Venue Goals Mean2.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.93
Conceded Std-0.58
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.96
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score26.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate32.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate11.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score31.89
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO198.8
Current Opponent ELO-198.8
Current ELO Difference397.6
Expected score0.52
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BKMA II

D
Olympia Yerevan2–2BKMA II3 Nov · away
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 38% · missed
L
BKMA II0–1Ararat II29 Oct · home
Pick: BKMA II 86% · missed
W
Shirak II3–4BKMA II14 Oct · away
Pick: BKMA II 78% · hit
W
BKMA II2–0Bentonit Ijevan1 Sep · home
Pick: BKMA II 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Noah II

W
Noah II3–2Pyunik II2 Nov · home
Pick: Pyunik II 54% · missed
L
Olympia Yerevan4–1Noah II13 Oct · away
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 65% · hit
D
Noah II0–0Andranik1 Sep · home
Pick: Andranik 73% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BKMA II and Noah II meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: BKMA II win 81.0%, draw 11.4%, Noah II win 7.7%. The pick is BKMA II win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.6%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.