ScoreProb
First League Armenia Round 13 2026

Lernayin Artsakh vs Olympia Yerevan

Lernayin Artsakh Home · Elo 1,386
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olympia Yerevan Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olympia Yerevan win
Lernayin Artsakh win
11.0%
Draw
8.7%
Olympia Yerevan winPick
80.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.0%
No50.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%

How much we know

Lernayin Artsakh history47 matches
Olympia Yerevan history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (80.3%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Olympia Yerevan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olympia Yerevan are rated 144 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,386. On rating alone Olympia Yerevan would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Olympia Yerevan score far more

    1.13 goals a game over 47 matches for Lernayin Artsakh, against 3.00 over 4 for Olympia Yerevan.

  • Olympia Yerevan concede fewer

    Lernayin Artsakh concede 2.32 a game, Olympia Yerevan 1.00.

  • Olympia Yerevan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Lernayin Artsakh matches, against 75% for Olympia Yerevan. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lernayin Artsakh
Olympia Yerevan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1385.9
ELO
1529.5
47
ELO · Matches
4
1385.9
Current Team ELO
1529.5
1529.5
Current Opponent ELO
1385.9
-143.6
Current ELO Difference
143.6
0.30
Expected score
0.70
47
History Matches
4
-0.13
Residual Mean
0.37
41.17
Overperformance
56.18
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.37
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
0.60
PPG
2.50
0.80
Goals for per game
3.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
75.0%
10
Matches
4
0.40
PPG
2.50
0.50
Goals for per game
3.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.71
3.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.61
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
4
0.96
PPG
2.50
27.7%
Win rate
75.0%
12.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
59.6%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
48.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
2
0.91
PPG
2.00
27.3%
Win rate
50.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
50.0%
63.6%
Loss rate
0.0%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
22
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
3.00
68.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
48.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
3.50
72.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
59.1%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
4
1.13
Goals Mean
3.00
1.20
Goals Std
0.71
68.1%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
25.5%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
75.0%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
3.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.32
Goals against per game
1.00
78.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2.23
Goals against per game
2.00
86.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
4
2.32
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.99
Conceded Std
1.22
57.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
42.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.23
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
31.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
4
0.84
Result entropy
0.51
2.61
Goal Difference Std
1.22
15.64
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
3
13
Lead Matches
3
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.78
18
Trailing Matches
0
0.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
2.00
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.90
Rest days
81.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.33
19
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.50
33.3%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.39
Portability PPG Std
—
0.91
Portability PPG Range
—
56.30
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-143.6
PPG-1.54
GF-1.87
GA1.32
PPG-1.50
PPG-1.09
PPG-1.90
PPG-2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches43
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate31.9%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate27.3%
History Matches43
Goals Mean-1.87
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.32
Scored 2+ rate-0.74
Scored 3+ rate-0.64
Venue Goals Mean-2.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches43
Conceded Mean1.32
Conceded Std0.77
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Conceded 2+ rate32.4%
Conceded 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.39
History Matches43
Result entropy0.33
Goal Difference Std1.39
Stability score-33.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate25.6%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches18
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean-1.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.67
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.14
Long Rest History Matches19
Current Team ELO-143.6
Current Opponent ELO143.6
Current ELO Difference-287.1
Expected score-0.39
History Matches43
Residual Mean-0.50
Overperformance-15.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.60

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lernayin Artsakh

L
Lernayin Artsakh1–7Shirak28 Oct · home
Pick: Shirak 39% · hit
W
Lernayin Artsakh5–0Shirak II20 Oct · home
Pick: Lernayin Artsakh 42% · hit
L
Ararat II5–1Lernayin Artsakh14 Oct · away
Pick: Lernayin Artsakh 42% · missed
L
Lernayin Artsakh1–2Araks Ararat8 Oct · home
Pick: Araks Ararat 53% · hit
W
Lernayin Artsakh5–0Ecoville26 Aug · home
Pick: Lernayin Artsakh 68% · hit

Olympia Yerevan

D
Olympia Yerevan2–2BKMA II3 Nov · home
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 38% · missed
D
Pyunik II1–1Olympia Yerevan20 Oct · away
Pick: Pyunik II 41% · missed
W
Olympia Yerevan4–1Noah II13 Oct · home
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 65% · hit
W
Olympia Yerevan2–1Araks Ararat1 Sep · home
Pick: Olympia Yerevan 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lernayin Artsakh and Olympia Yerevan meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lernayin Artsakh win 11.0%, draw 8.7%, Olympia Yerevan win 80.3%. The pick is Olympia Yerevan win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.3%. Both teams to score: 50.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.