ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Banbury United vs Leamington

Banbury United Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leamington Away · Elo 1,375
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Banbury United win
Banbury United winPick
55.3%
Draw
24.5%
Leamington win
20.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Banbury United history74 matches
Leamington history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Banbury United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Banbury United are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,515 against 1,375. On rating alone Banbury United would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Banbury United score more

    1.12 goals a game over 74 matches for Banbury United, against 0.95 over 78 for Leamington.

  • Banbury United concede fewer

    Banbury United concede 1.19 a game, Leamington 1.65.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Banbury United matches, against 47% for Leamington. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Banbury United
Leamington
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.8
ELO
1375.5
74
ELO · Matches
78
1514.8
Current Team ELO
1375.5
1375.5
Current Opponent ELO
1514.8
139.3
Current ELO Difference
-139.3
0.69
Expected score
0.31
74
History Matches
78
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.08
50.56
Overperformance
44.02
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
78
1.38
PPG
0.88
36.5%
Win rate
23.1%
28.4%
Draw rate
19.2%
35.1%
Loss rate
57.7%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
38
1.67
PPG
0.66
44.4%
Win rate
15.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
18.4%
22.2%
Loss rate
65.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.8%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
36
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.12
Goals for per game
0.95
60.8%
Scoring rate
59.0%
39.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.22
Goals for per game
0.79
69.4%
Scoring rate
55.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
78
1.12
Goals Mean
0.95
1.20
Goals Std
0.97
60.8%
Scored 1+ rate
59.0%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
28.2%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
6.4%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.65
62.2%
Conceding rate
85.9%
1.03
Goals against per game
2.00
58.3%
Conceding rate
92.1%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
78
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.23
Conceded Std
1.21
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
39.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.9%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
39.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
7.9%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
78
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.53
Stability score
11.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
78
17
Lead Matches
15
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.76
21
Trailing Matches
26
19.0%
Non-loss rate
11.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
3.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
11
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.25
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.24
Portability PPG Std
1.06
0.67
Portability PPG Range
2.75
67.59
Portability Score
32.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO139.3
PPG0.49
GF0.17
GA-0.46
PPG0.75
PPG1.01
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate1.8%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.97
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-10.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate14.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate7.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.82
Portability PPG Range-2.08
Portability Score35.45
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO139.3
Current Opponent ELO-139.3
Current ELO Difference278.6
Expected score0.38
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Banbury United

D
Bury Town2–2Banbury United31 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 61% · missed
L
Banbury United0–3Worcester City27 Oct · home
Pick: Banbury United 37% · missed
L
Bourne Town1–0Banbury United24 Oct · away
Pick: Banbury United 54% · missed
W
Banbury United1–0Leighton Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Banbury United 38% · hit
D
Bromsgrove Sporting1–1Banbury United17 Oct · away
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 48% · missed

Leamington

L
Leamington2–4Peterborough Sports31 Oct · home
Pick: Leamington 39% · missed
L
Halesowen Town3–2Leamington27 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 62% · hit
L
Rushall Olympic3–1Leamington20 Oct · away
Pick: Rushall Olympic 53% · hit
L
Leamington1–2Needham Market17 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 39% · hit
D
Leamington2–2Redditch United13 Oct · home
Pick: Redditch United 45% · missed

About this match

Banbury United and Leamington meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Banbury United win 55.3%, draw 24.5%, Leamington win 20.2%. The pick is Banbury United win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.