ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Needham Market vs Stourbridge

Needham Market Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stourbridge Away · Elo 1,508
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stourbridge win
Needham Market win
37.5%
Draw
22.0%
Stourbridge winPick
40.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Needham Market history73 matches
Stourbridge history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stourbridge are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.42 goals a game over 73 matches for Needham Market, against 1.46 over 65 for Stourbridge.

  • Needham Market concede fewer

    Needham Market concede 1.41 a game, Stourbridge 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Needham Market matches, against 57% for Stourbridge. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Needham Market
Stourbridge
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.5
ELO
1508.3
73
ELO · Matches
65
1522.5
Current Team ELO
1508.3
1508.3
Current Opponent ELO
1522.5
14.16
Current ELO Difference
-14.16
0.52
Expected score
0.48
73
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.31
Overperformance
50.41
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
65
1.41
PPG
1.31
41.1%
Win rate
33.8%
17.8%
Draw rate
29.2%
41.1%
Loss rate
36.9%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
34.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.78
PPG
1.24
56.8%
Win rate
33.3%
8.1%
Draw rate
24.2%
35.1%
Loss rate
42.4%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.9%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.46
69.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
50.7%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.48
78.4%
Scoring rate
78.8%
54.1%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
73
History Matches
65
1.42
Goals Mean
1.46
1.43
Goals Std
1.19
69.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.60
78.1%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.79
73.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
73
History Matches
65
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.13
Conceded Std
1.29
41.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.6%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.3%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.90
5.50
Stability score
0.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
65
20
Lead Matches
21
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.78
21
Trailing Matches
21
28.6%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
61
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
0.75
PPG
2.33
25.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
4
Current Competition Matches
3
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.14
44.81
Portability Score
51.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO14.16
PPG0.10
GF-0.04
GA-0.19
PPG-1.58
PPG0.54
PPG-1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.4%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.60
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score5.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-6.59
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.28
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.11
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO14.16
Current Opponent ELO-14.16
Current ELO Difference28.32
Expected score0.04
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Needham Market

D
Redditch United3–3Needham Market31 Oct · away
Pick: Redditch United 49% · missed
D
Needham Market1–1Leighton Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 42% · missed
L
Needham Market0–2Wingate & Finchley24 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 55% · missed
W
Needham Market2–1Bishop's Stortford20 Oct · home
Pick: Needham Market 46% · hit
W
Leamington1–2Needham Market17 Oct · away
Pick: Needham Market 39% · hit

Stourbridge

W
Stourbridge4–1Kettering Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Stourbridge 40% · hit
W
Real Bedford0–1Stourbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 64% · missed
W
Loughborough University0–2Stourbridge24 Oct · away
Pick: Stourbridge 51% · hit
L
Bury Town2–0Stourbridge17 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 48% · hit
W
Worcester City1–3Stourbridge13 Oct · away
Pick: Worcester City 43% · missed

About this match

Needham Market and Stourbridge meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Needham Market win 37.5%, draw 22.0%, Stourbridge win 40.5%. The pick is Stourbridge win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.