ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Kettering Town vs Redditch United

Kettering Town Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Redditch United Away · Elo 1,550
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kettering Town win
Kettering Town winPick
48.9%
Draw
25.9%
Redditch United win
25.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Kettering Town history71 matches
Redditch United history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kettering Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kettering Town are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,550. On rating alone Kettering Town would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 71 matches for Kettering Town, against 1.42 over 69 for Redditch United.

  • Kettering Town concede fewer

    Kettering Town concede 1.11 a game, Redditch United 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Kettering Town matches, against 49% for Redditch United. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kettering Town
Redditch United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.1
ELO
1550.3
71
ELO · Matches
69
1589.1
Current Team ELO
1550.3
1550.3
Current Opponent ELO
1589.1
38.77
Current ELO Difference
-38.77
0.56
Expected score
0.44
71
History Matches
69
0.06
Residual Mean
0.04
54.49
Overperformance
52.77
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
0.90
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
69
1.69
PPG
1.42
47.9%
Win rate
39.1%
25.4%
Draw rate
24.6%
26.8%
Loss rate
36.2%
71.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
35
1.76
PPG
0.97
47.1%
Win rate
22.9%
35.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
17.6%
Loss rate
48.6%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
34
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.42
76.1%
Scoring rate
72.5%
46.5%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.65
Goals for per game
0.86
73.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
44.1%
BTTS rate
45.7%
0.75
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
69
1.56
Goals Mean
1.42
1.36
Goals Std
1.36
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.29
60.6%
Conceding rate
68.1%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.40
52.9%
Conceding rate
77.1%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
69
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.22
Conceded Std
1.31
28.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
69
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.12
4.13
Stability score
1.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
68
23
Lead Matches
22
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
58
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
9
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.67
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.60
79.00
Portability Score
42.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO38.77
PPG0.27
GF0.14
GA-0.18
PPG1.25
PPG0.79
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.89
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate1.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score2.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.54
Portability PPG Range-1.27
Portability Score36.33
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Current Team ELO38.77
Current Opponent ELO-38.77
Current ELO Difference77.53
Expected score0.11
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kettering Town

W
Bury Town2–3Kettering Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Bury Town 50% · missed
L
Stourbridge4–1Kettering Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Stourbridge 40% · hit
W
Kettering Town3–2Rushall Olympic27 Oct · home
Pick: Kettering Town 44% · hit
W
Kettering Town6–2Quorn24 Oct · home
Pick: Kettering Town 53% · hit
W
Kettering Town4–0Leiston20 Oct · home
Pick: Kettering Town 45% · hit

Redditch United

D
Redditch United3–3Needham Market31 Oct · home
Pick: Redditch United 49% · missed
W
Racing Club Warwick1–2Redditch United27 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 41% · missed
D
Leamington2–2Redditch United13 Oct · away
Pick: Redditch United 45% · missed
W
Redditch United3–1Halesowen Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Redditch United 38% · hit
L
Leiston3–1Redditch United29 Aug · away
Pick: Leiston 51% · hit

About this match

Kettering Town and Redditch United meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Kettering Town win 48.9%, draw 25.9%, Redditch United win 25.2%. The pick is Kettering Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.