ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Bishop's Stortford vs Stratford Town

Bishop's Stortford Home · Elo 1,427
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stratford Town Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bishop's Stortford win
Bishop's Stortford winPick
50.6%
Draw
22.5%
Stratford Town win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Bishop's Stortford history73 matches
Stratford Town history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bishop's Stortford are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stratford Town are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,427. On rating alone Stratford Town would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.23 goals a game over 73 matches for Bishop's Stortford, against 1.35 over 69 for Stratford Town.

  • Stratford Town concede fewer

    Bishop's Stortford concede 1.60 a game, Stratford Town 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Bishop's Stortford matches, against 54% for Stratford Town. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bishop's Stortford
Stratford Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1427.1
ELO
1509.3
73
ELO · Matches
69
1427.1
Current Team ELO
1509.3
1509.3
Current Opponent ELO
1427.1
-82.13
Current ELO Difference
82.13
0.38
Expected score
0.62
73
History Matches
69
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
46.30
Overperformance
50.81
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.40
0.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.09
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
69
1.12
PPG
1.41
28.8%
Win rate
37.7%
26.0%
Draw rate
27.5%
45.2%
Loss rate
34.8%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
46.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.32
PPG
1.06
37.8%
Win rate
24.2%
18.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
43.2%
Loss rate
42.4%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
1.35
69.9%
Scoring rate
72.5%
50.7%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.03
70.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
45.9%
BTTS rate
60.6%
0.25
Goals for per game
0.75
25.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
69
1.23
Goals Mean
1.35
1.27
Goals Std
1.21
69.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
13.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.0%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.39
75.3%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.52
70.3%
Conceding rate
84.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
73
History Matches
69
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.38
Conceded Std
1.32
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
24.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
30.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
29.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
24.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
69
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.89
2.82
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
20
56.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
27
Trailing Matches
24
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
59
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
10
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.69
Portability PPG Std
0.44
2.08
Portability PPG Range
0.95
41.88
Portability Score
53.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-82.13
PPG-0.28
GF-0.11
GA0.21
PPG-0.25
PPG0.26
PPG0.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate10.5%
Conceded 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score2.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.36
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate7.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range1.13
Portability Score-11.48
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-82.13
Current Opponent ELO82.13
Current ELO Difference-164.3
Expected score-0.23
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bishop's Stortford

L
Anstey Nomads4–1Bishop's Stortford31 Oct · away
Pick: Anstey Nomads 70% · hit
L
Bishop's Stortford0–1Stamford27 Oct · home
Pick: Bishop's Stortford 42% · missed
W
Bishop's Stortford3–1Real Bedford24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Bedford 65% · missed
L
Needham Market2–1Bishop's Stortford20 Oct · away
Pick: Needham Market 46% · hit
L
Bishop's Stortford2–4Racing Club Warwick17 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 42% · hit

Stratford Town

W
Stratford Town3–1Hitchin Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Stratford Town 39% · hit
D
Bromsgrove Sporting2–2Stratford Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 50% · missed
D
Stratford Town4–4Alvechurch24 Oct · home
Pick: Alvechurch 41% · missed
D
Stamford0–0Stratford Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Stamford 49% · missed
D
Racing Club Warwick0–0Stratford Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 52% · missed

About this match

Bishop's Stortford and Stratford Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bishop's Stortford win 50.6%, draw 22.5%, Stratford Town win 27.0%. The pick is Bishop's Stortford win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.