ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales North - 14 2026

Bangor City 1876 FC vs Gresford Athletic

Bangor City 1876 FC Home · Elo 1,496
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gresford Athletic Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bangor City 1876 FC win
Bangor City 1876 FC winPick
59.6%
Draw
15.0%
Gresford Athletic win
25.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%

How much we know

Bangor City 1876 FC history20 matches
Gresford Athletic history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bangor City 1876 FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bangor City 1876 FC are rated 73 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,496 against 1,423. On rating alone Bangor City 1876 FC would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.80 goals a game over 20 matches for Bangor City 1876 FC, against 1.84 over 49 for Gresford Athletic.

  • Bangor City 1876 FC concede fewer

    Bangor City 1876 FC concede 1.90 a game, Gresford Athletic 2.59.

  • Gresford Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Bangor City 1876 FC matches, against 82% for Gresford Athletic. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bangor City 1876 FC
Gresford Athletic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1496.1
ELO
1423.1
20
ELO · Matches
49
1496.1
Current Team ELO
1423.1
1423.1
Current Opponent ELO
1496.1
73.03
Current ELO Difference
-73.03
0.60
Expected score
0.40
20
History Matches
49
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.99
Overperformance
44.38
0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.50
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
2.40
Goals for per game
0.00
2.00
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.00
2.60
Goals for per game
0.30
1.30
Goals against per game
2.90
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
2.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
20
Matches
49
1.30
PPG
1.16
40.0%
Win rate
34.7%
10.0%
Draw rate
12.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
53.1%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.8%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
81.6%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
59.2%
2.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
25
1.55
PPG
0.84
45.5%
Win rate
24.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
12.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
64.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
84.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
64.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.90
11
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.84
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
65.0%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.76
90.9%
Scoring rate
68.0%
72.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.75
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
20
History Matches
49
1.80
Goals Mean
1.84
1.63
Goals Std
1.89
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
36.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
2.59
85.0%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.36
Goals against per game
3.00
81.8%
Conceding rate
88.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
3.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
20
History Matches
49
1.90
Conceded Mean
2.59
1.55
Conceded Std
2.14
55.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.3%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
46.9%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
20
History Matches
49
0.86
Result entropy
0.87
2.70
Goal Difference Std
3.15
14.13
Stability score
12.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
48
5
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.82
8
Trailing Matches
17
25.0%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
12
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
0.00
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.88
1.85
Portability PPG Range
2.25
36.95
Portability Score
36.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
20
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO73.03
PPG0.14
GF-0.04
GA-0.69
PPG2.25
PPG0.71
PPG1.80
PPG2.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-29
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate0.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.17
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean-0.69
Conceded Std-0.59
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.40
Eligible Matches-28
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate3.5%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate19.1%
Trailing Win Rate19.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-28
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score0.61
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO73.03
Current Opponent ELO-73.03
Current ELO Difference146.1
Expected score0.21
History Matches-29
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.82

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bangor City 1876 FC

D
Caersws1–1Bangor City 1876 FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Bangor City 1876 FC 44% · missed
W
Denbigh Town0–2Bangor City 1876 FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Denbigh Town 58% · missed
L
Mold Alexandra2–1Bangor City 1876 FC31 Aug · away
Pick: Bangor City 1876 FC 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gresford Athletic

L
Gresford Athletic1–2Ruthin Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Ruthin Town 52% · hit
L
Llanuwchllyn2–0Gresford Athletic31 Aug · away
Pick: Llanuwchllyn 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bangor City 1876 FC and Gresford Athletic meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bangor City 1876 FC win 59.6%, draw 15.0%, Gresford Athletic win 25.4%. The pick is Bangor City 1876 FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.8%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.