ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

Newport City vs Treowen Stars

Newport City Home · Elo 1,471
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Treowen Stars Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newport City win
Newport City winPick
48.4%
Draw
22.7%
Treowen Stars win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%

How much we know

Newport City history48 matches
Treowen Stars history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Newport City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Treowen Stars are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,471. On rating alone Treowen Stars would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Treowen Stars score more

    1.44 goals a game over 48 matches for Newport City, against 1.89 over 37 for Treowen Stars.

  • Newport City concede fewer

    Newport City concede 1.54 a game, Treowen Stars 2.00.

  • Treowen Stars games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Newport City matches, against 73% for Treowen Stars. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newport City
Treowen Stars
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.3
ELO
1509.6
48
ELO · Matches
37
1471.3
Current Team ELO
1509.6
1509.6
Current Opponent ELO
1471.3
-38.30
Current ELO Difference
38.30
0.45
Expected score
0.55
48
History Matches
37
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.78
Overperformance
50.72
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
3.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.30
2.50
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.83
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
3.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
37
1.46
PPG
1.38
39.6%
Win rate
37.8%
27.1%
Draw rate
24.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
73.0%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
56.8%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.46
PPG
1.32
37.5%
Win rate
36.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.1%
29.2%
Loss rate
42.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.7%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
78.9%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
57.9%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.89
72.9%
Scoring rate
83.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.95
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.9%
58.3%
BTTS rate
73.7%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
48
History Matches
37
1.44
Goals Mean
1.89
1.21
Goals Std
1.33
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
59.5%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
2.00
72.9%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.46
Goals against per game
2.32
75.0%
Conceding rate
94.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
48
History Matches
37
1.54
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.54
Conceded Std
1.58
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.1%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.4%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
2.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
37
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
2.02
Goal Difference Std
2.32
1.07
Stability score
1.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
37
15
Lead Matches
7
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
14
46.7%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.46
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
23
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.25
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.48
Portability PPG Range
1.02
45.62
Portability Score
49.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-38.30
PPG0.08
GF-0.45
GA-0.46
PPG-0.75
PPG0.14
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate19.7%
Failed-to-score rate3.9%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches11
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-0.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate1.9%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.46
Portability Score-3.97
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-38.30
Current Opponent ELO38.30
Current ELO Difference-76.60
Expected score-0.11
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Newport City

W
Llantwit Major2–3Newport City31 Oct · away
Pick: Newport City 55% · hit
D
Newport City4–4Pontypridd Town23 Oct · home
Pick: Pontypridd Town 37% · missed
W
Carmarthen Town4–5Newport City17 Oct · away
Pick: Carmarthen Town 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Treowen Stars

W
Baglan Dragons0–1Treowen Stars30 Oct · away
Pick: Treowen Stars 45% · hit
L
Caerau (Ely)3–2Treowen Stars31 Aug · away
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Newport City and Treowen Stars meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Newport City win 48.4%, draw 22.7%, Treowen Stars win 28.9%. The pick is Newport City win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.6%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.