ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

llanelli AFC vs Pontardawe Town

llanelli AFC Home · Elo 1,358
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pontardawe Town Away · Elo 1,477
Stebonheath Park, Llanelli Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pontardawe Town win
llanelli AFC win
38.5%
Draw
13.3%
Pontardawe Town winPick
48.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%

How much we know

llanelli AFC history50 matches
Pontardawe Town history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pontardawe Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pontardawe Town are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,477 against 1,358. On rating alone Pontardawe Town would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Pontardawe Town score more

    0.90 goals a game over 50 matches for llanelli AFC, against 1.25 over 4 for Pontardawe Town.

  • Defences are close

    llanelli AFC concede 2.22 a game, Pontardawe Town 2.00.

  • Pontardawe Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of llanelli AFC matches, against 75% for Pontardawe Town. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
llanelli AFC
Pontardawe Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1358.3
ELO
1477.1
50
ELO · Matches
4
1358.3
Current Team ELO
1477.1
1477.1
Current Opponent ELO
1358.3
-118.9
Current ELO Difference
118.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
50
History Matches
4
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.29
40.03
Overperformance
45.21
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
0.20
PPG
0.75
0.80
Goals for per game
1.25
3.60
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
0.75
0.70
Goals for per game
1.25
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.25
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
4
0.80
PPG
0.75
22.0%
Win rate
25.0%
14.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
64.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
2
0.68
PPG
0.00
16.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
64.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
25
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.90
Goals for per game
1.25
56.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
46.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
52.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
50
History Matches
4
0.90
Goals Mean
1.25
1.06
Goals Std
1.30
56.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.22
Goals against per game
2.00
86.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
84.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
50
History Matches
4
2.22
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.78
Conceded Std
1.58
54.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
36.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
16.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
4
0.81
Result entropy
0.51
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.49
18.63
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
4
12
Lead Matches
2
41.7%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
0.50
27
Trailing Matches
1
7.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.06
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.25
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
1
0.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
6
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.85
Portability PPG Std
—
1.88
Portability PPG Range
—
37.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-118.9
PPG0.05
GF-0.35
GA0.22
PPG-0.50
PPG0.68
PPG-0.55
PPG-0.25
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches23
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches46
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate6.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches46
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches46
Result entropy0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-30.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.37
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches26
Non-loss rate7.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches19
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO-118.9
Current Opponent ELO118.9
Current ELO Difference-237.7
Expected score-0.33
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance-5.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

llanelli AFC

L
Pontypridd Town4–0llanelli AFC30 Oct · away
Pick: Pontypridd Town 69% · hit
L
llanelli AFC0–3Afan Lido23 Oct · home
Pick: Afan Lido 53% · hit
L
Caerau (Ely)6–0llanelli AFC16 Oct · away
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 63% · hit
L
Aberystwyth Town4–0llanelli AFC31 Aug · away
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pontardawe Town

W
Pontardawe Town2–1Carmarthen Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Carmarthen Town 48% · missed
D
Llangennech1–1Pontardawe Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Pontardawe Town 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

llanelli AFC and Pontardawe Town meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stebonheath Park, Llanelli. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: llanelli AFC win 38.5%, draw 13.3%, Pontardawe Town win 48.2%. The pick is Pontardawe Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.