ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Barakaldo vs Real Unión

Barakaldo Home · Elo 1,522
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Unión Away · Elo 1,607
Campo de Lasesarre, Barakaldo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barakaldo win
Barakaldo winPick
43.3%
Draw
27.6%
Real Unión win
29.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Barakaldo history61 matches
Real Unión history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Barakaldo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Unión are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,522. On rating alone Real Unión would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Real Unión score more

    1.21 goals a game over 61 matches for Barakaldo, against 1.58 over 55 for Real Unión.

  • Defences are close

    Barakaldo concede 1.15 a game, Real Unión 1.13.

  • Real Unión games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Barakaldo matches, against 53% for Real Unión. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barakaldo
Real Unión
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.7
ELO
1607.3
61
ELO · Matches
55
1521.7
Current Team ELO
1607.3
1607.3
Current Opponent ELO
1521.7
-85.66
Current ELO Difference
85.66
0.38
Expected score
0.62
61
History Matches
55
0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
51.11
Overperformance
57.03
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
55
1.28
PPG
1.73
32.8%
Win rate
49.1%
29.5%
Draw rate
25.5%
37.7%
Loss rate
25.5%
75.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
44.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
16.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.79
PPG
1.57
51.7%
Win rate
46.4%
24.1%
Draw rate
17.9%
24.1%
Loss rate
35.7%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.58
68.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.32
79.3%
Scoring rate
78.6%
55.2%
BTTS rate
60.7%
61
History Matches
55
1.21
Goals Mean
1.58
1.10
Goals Std
1.25
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.6%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.15
Goals against per game
1.13
77.0%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.39
65.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
61
History Matches
55
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.13
0.81
Conceded Std
1.13
34.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.5%
3.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
23.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.70
0.46
Stability score
4.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
55
13
Lead Matches
16
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.77
18
Trailing Matches
9
38.9%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.00
Rest days
91.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
27
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.64
Portability PPG Range
0.97
64.27
Portability Score
50.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-85.66
PPG-0.45
GF-0.37
GA0.02
PPG0.22
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate9.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches6
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-4.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate8.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate27.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score13.52
Rest days-6.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-85.66
Current Opponent ELO85.66
Current ELO Difference-171.3
Expected score-0.24
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barakaldo

D
Barakaldo0–0Pontevedra1 Nov · home
Pick: Pontevedra 44% · missed
D
Ponferradina0–0Barakaldo24 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 50% · missed
W
Barakaldo2–0Mirandes17 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandes 41% · missed
D
Barakaldo0–0Cultural Leonesa30 Aug · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Unión

L
Real Unión0–3Real Avilés31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Avilés 40% · hit
W
Real Unión4–1Lugo23 Oct · home
Pick: Real Unión 41% · hit
D
Extremadura 19242–2Real Unión17 Oct · away
Pick: Extremadura 1924 44% · missed
W
Real Unión4–1CD Coria30 Aug · home
Pick: CD Coria 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barakaldo and Real Unión meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Campo de Lasesarre, Barakaldo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Barakaldo win 43.3%, draw 27.6%, Real Unión win 29.1%. The pick is Barakaldo win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.