ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Pontevedra vs UD Ourense

Pontevedra Home · Elo 1,556
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
UD Ourense Away · Elo 1,604
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pontevedra win
Pontevedra winPick
45.6%
Draw
28.5%
UD Ourense win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Pontevedra history63 matches
UD Ourense history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pontevedra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UD Ourense are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,556. On rating alone UD Ourense would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 63 matches for Pontevedra, against 1.29 over 56 for UD Ourense.

  • UD Ourense concede fewer

    Pontevedra concede 1.02 a game, UD Ourense 0.84.

  • Pontevedra games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Pontevedra matches, against 32% for UD Ourense. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pontevedra
UD Ourense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.8
ELO
1603.9
63
ELO · Matches
56
1555.8
Current Team ELO
1603.9
1603.9
Current Opponent ELO
1555.8
-48.11
Current ELO Difference
48.11
0.43
Expected score
0.57
63
History Matches
56
0.04
Residual Mean
0.10
53.18
Overperformance
57.19
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
56
1.56
PPG
1.80
41.3%
Win rate
50.0%
31.7%
Draw rate
30.4%
27.0%
Loss rate
19.6%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
26
2.00
PPG
1.50
54.8%
Win rate
38.5%
35.5%
Draw rate
34.6%
9.7%
Loss rate
26.9%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
31
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.29
69.8%
Scoring rate
80.4%
49.2%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.12
80.6%
Scoring rate
73.1%
54.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
63
History Matches
56
1.33
Goals Mean
1.29
1.27
Goals Std
0.98
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.4%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
0.84
66.7%
Conceding rate
60.7%
0.87
Goals against per game
0.92
64.5%
Conceding rate
61.5%
63
History Matches
56
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.84
1.02
Conceded Std
0.86
22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.1%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.6%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.34
1.42
Stability score
6.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
56
20
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.86
15
Trailing Matches
14
26.7%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.90
Rest days
159.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.60
Portability PPG Range
0.88
44.17
Portability Score
57.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-48.11
PPG-0.25
GF0.05
GA0.18
PPG0.50
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate6.2%
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches7
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score-4.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.99
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.1%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.27
Portability PPG Range0.72
Portability Score-13.62
Rest days-80.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO-48.11
Current Opponent ELO48.11
Current ELO Difference-96.22
Expected score-0.14
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pontevedra

D
Barakaldo0–0Pontevedra1 Nov · away
Pick: Pontevedra 44% · missed
L
Arosa2–0Pontevedra27 Oct · away
Pick: Pontevedra 43% · missed
W
Cultural Leonesa1–2Pontevedra24 Oct · away
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 44% · missed
W
Pontevedra1–0Cacereño18 Oct · home
Pick: Pontevedra 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UD Ourense

W
UD Ourense1–0Cultural Leonesa1 Nov · home
Pick: UD Ourense 39% · hit
L
Arenas Getxo2–0UD Ourense24 Oct · away
Pick: Arenas Getxo 39% · hit
L
Real Avilés3–0UD Ourense18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Avilés 46% · hit
L
UD Ourense0–1Ponferradina29 Aug · home
Pick: Ponferradina 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pontevedra and UD Ourense meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pontevedra win 45.6%, draw 28.5%, UD Ourense win 25.9%. The pick is Pontevedra win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.