ScoreProb
Log in
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Barcelona B vs Girona II

Barcelona B Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Girona II Away · Elo 1,547
Estadi Johan Cruyff, Barcelona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barcelona B win
Barcelona B winPick
37.9%
Draw
30.1%
Girona II win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Barcelona B history54 matches
Girona II history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Barcelona B are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,539 against 1,547. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Barcelona B score more

    1.70 goals a game over 54 matches for Barcelona B, against 1.35 over 55 for Girona II.

  • Girona II concede fewer

    Barcelona B concede 1.31 a game, Girona II 1.05.

  • Barcelona B games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Barcelona B matches, against 42% for Girona II. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barcelona B
Girona II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.7
ELO
1546.7
54
ELO · Matches
55
1538.7
Current Team ELO
1546.7
1546.7
Current Opponent ELO
1538.7
-7.99
Current ELO Difference
7.99
0.49
Expected score
0.51
54
History Matches
55
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
53.13
Overperformance
52.66
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
55
1.46
PPG
1.56
40.7%
Win rate
41.8%
24.1%
Draw rate
30.9%
35.2%
Loss rate
27.3%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.72
PPG
1.28
48.3%
Win rate
34.5%
27.6%
Draw rate
24.1%
24.1%
Loss rate
41.4%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
62.1%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.8%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
1.35
77.8%
Scoring rate
70.9%
53.7%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.07
82.8%
Scoring rate
65.5%
55.2%
BTTS rate
48.3%
54
History Matches
55
1.70
Goals Mean
1.35
1.33
Goals Std
1.39
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.9%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
34.5%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
1.05
72.2%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.10
69.0%
Conceding rate
75.9%
54
History Matches
55
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.14
Conceded Std
0.96
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.6%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.30
2.04
Stability score
1.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
55
17
Lead Matches
10
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.93
16
Trailing Matches
14
37.5%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.3
Rest days
195.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.22
Portability PPG Range
1.28
83.88
Portability Score
46.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.99
PPG-0.10
GF0.36
GA0.26
PPG0.45
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate5.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate11.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score0.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score37.29
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO-7.99
Current Opponent ELO7.99
Current ELO Difference-15.99
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barcelona B

W
Barcelona B2–1Arnedo31 Oct · home
Pick: Arnedo 47% · missed
L
Olot2–0Barcelona B25 Oct · away
Pick: Olot 45% · hit
W
Barcelona B2–1Utebo17 Oct · home
Pick: Utebo 40% · missed
W
Tudelano1–2Barcelona B4 Oct · away
Pick: Tudelano 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Girona II

W
Calamocha0–1Girona II31 Oct · away
Pick: Calamocha 38% · missed
W
Girona II3–0Náxara25 Oct · home
Pick: Náxara 37% · missed
L
Terrassa1–0Girona II21 Oct · away
Pick: Girona II 38% · missed
W
Ebro0–1Girona II17 Oct · away
Pick: Ebro 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Barcelona B and Girona II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadi Johan Cruyff, Barcelona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Barcelona B win 37.9%, draw 30.1%, Girona II win 32.0%. The pick is Barcelona B win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.