ScoreProb
Log in
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Osasuna II vs SD Logroñés

Osasuna II Home · Elo 1,449
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
SD Logroñés Away · Elo 1,506
Tajonar Facilities Stadium, Pamplona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Osasuna II win
Osasuna II winPick
40.5%
Draw
26.7%
SD Logroñés win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.7%
Under 2.556.3%

How much we know

Osasuna II history60 matches
SD Logroñés history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Osasuna II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SD Logroñés are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,506 against 1,449. On rating alone SD Logroñés would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.98 goals a game over 60 matches for Osasuna II, against 1.02 over 54 for SD Logroñés.

  • Defences are close

    Osasuna II concede 1.20 a game, SD Logroñés 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of Osasuna II matches, against 37% for SD Logroñés. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Osasuna II
SD Logroñés@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1448.5
ELO
1505.7
60
ELO · Matches
54
1448.5
Current Team ELO
1505.7
1505.7
Current Opponent ELO
1448.5
-57.12
Current ELO Difference
57.12
0.42
Expected score
0.58
60
History Matches
54
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
46.66
Overperformance
50.29
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
54
1.13
PPG
1.46
28.3%
Win rate
38.9%
28.3%
Draw rate
29.6%
43.3%
Loss rate
31.5%
61.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.8%
31.7%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
18.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.17
PPG
1.41
27.6%
Win rate
37.0%
34.5%
Draw rate
29.6%
37.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.02
60.0%
Scoring rate
64.8%
43.3%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.96
69.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
60
History Matches
54
0.98
Goals Mean
1.02
1.06
Goals Std
0.99
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.8%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.9%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.11
75.0%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.22
72.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
60
History Matches
54
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.03
Conceded Std
1.21
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
1.24
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
54
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.67
1.97
Stability score
0.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
54
11
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
98.25
Rest days
181.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
30
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.45
Portability PPG Range
1.20
73.22
Portability Score
45.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-57.12
PPG-0.33
GF-0.04
GA0.09
PPG-0.23
PPG-1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score1.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.42
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score27.72
Rest days-82.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-57.12
Current Opponent ELO57.12
Current ELO Difference-114.2
Expected score-0.16
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Osasuna II

W
Osasuna II2–0Tudelano1 Nov · home
Pick: Osasuna II 41% · hit
L
Espanyol II1–0Osasuna II25 Oct · away
Pick: Espanyol II 41% · hit
D
Osasuna II0–0Olot17 Oct · home
Pick: Osasuna II 44% · missed
W
Osasuna II2–0Calamocha4 Oct · home
Pick: Osasuna II 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SD Logroñés

D
Ebro2–2SD Logroñés31 Oct · away
Pick: Ebro 40% · missed
D
SD Logroñés0–0Terrassa25 Oct · home
Pick: SD Logroñés 49% · missed
D
SD Logroñés1–1Náxara18 Oct · home
Pick: SD Logroñés 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Osasuna II and SD Logroñés meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Tajonar Facilities Stadium, Pamplona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Osasuna II win 40.5%, draw 26.7%, SD Logroñés win 32.7%. The pick is Osasuna II win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.7%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.