Bari vs Foggia
Match result probability Model pick: Bari win
Bari winPick
55.7%
Draw
23.2%
Foggia win
21.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.0%
No53.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%
How much we know
Bari history61 matches
Foggia history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bari
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Bari are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bari are rated 92 Elo points higher
Elo 1,476 against 1,384. On rating alone Bari would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
Bari score more
1.05 goals a game over 61 matches for Bari, against 0.88 over 58 for Foggia.
-
Bari concede fewer
Bari concede 1.38 a game, Foggia 1.53.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
49% of Bari matches, against 50% for Foggia. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1475.8
ELO
1383.9
61
ELO · Matches
58
1475.8
Current Team ELO
1383.9
1383.9
Current Opponent ELO
1475.8
91.87
Current ELO Difference
-91.87
0.63
Expected score
0.37
61
History Matches
58
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.10
48.94
Overperformance
42.56
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.50
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
61
Matches
58
1.18
PPG
0.84
29.5%
Win rate
20.7%
29.5%
Draw rate
22.4%
41.0%
Loss rate
56.9%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
19.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
30
1.59
PPG
0.53
43.8%
Win rate
10.0%
28.1%
Draw rate
23.3%
28.1%
Loss rate
66.7%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.05
Goals for per game
0.88
67.2%
Scoring rate
62.1%
50.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.28
Goals for per game
0.73
78.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
53.1%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
58
1.05
Goals Mean
0.88
0.98
Goals Std
0.83
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.1%
26.2%
Scored 2+ rate
22.4%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
3.4%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.53
72.1%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.67
65.6%
Conceding rate
76.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
61
History Matches
58
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.19
Conceded Std
1.25
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
61
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.46
1.16
Stability score
10.61
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
61
Eligible Matches
58
14
Lead Matches
13
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.82
14
Trailing Matches
21
14.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.90
Rest days
81.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.60
19
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.15
54.53
Portability Score
87.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
61
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO91.87
PPG0.34
GF0.17
GA-0.16
PPG0.00
PPG1.06
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate5.1%
Scored 2+ rate3.8%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.83
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches3
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-9.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.96
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.6%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.80
Portability Score-32.69
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO91.87
Current Opponent ELO-91.87
Current ELO Difference183.7
Expected score0.26
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bari
D
Bari1–1Scafatese31 Oct · home
Pick: Bari 50% · missed L
Potenza2–1Bari27 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 53% · hit D
Casertana1–1Bari23 Oct · away
Pick: Casertana 41% · missed D
Bari0–0Crotone18 Oct · home
Pick: Bari 45% · missed L
Salernitana2–1Bari4 Oct · away
Pick: Salernitana 47% · hit Foggia
D
Casarano2–2Foggia2 Nov · away
Pick: Casarano 46% · missed W
Foggia1–0Cavese25 Oct · home
Pick: Foggia 48% · hit L
Giugliano3–1Foggia19 Oct · away
Pick: Giugliano 46% · hit W
Cosenza0–2Foggia4 Oct · away
Pick: Cosenza 40% · missed D
Foggia1–1Salernitana29 Aug · home
Pick: Salernitana 45% · missed About this match
Bari and Foggia meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio San Nicola, Bari. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bari win 55.7%, draw 23.2%, Foggia win 21.1%. The pick is Bari win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.