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Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 14 2026

Casarano vs AZ Picerno

Casarano Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
AZ Picerno Away · Elo 1,493
Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Casarano win
Casarano winPick
43.2%
Draw
24.8%
AZ Picerno win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Casarano history64 matches
AZ Picerno history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Casarano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Casarano are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,493. On rating alone Casarano would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Casarano score more

    1.64 goals a game over 64 matches for Casarano, against 1.21 over 58 for AZ Picerno.

  • Defences are close

    Casarano concede 1.36 a game, AZ Picerno 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Casarano matches, against 52% for AZ Picerno. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Casarano
AZ Picerno@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.1
ELO
1493.0
64
ELO · Matches
58
1537.1
Current Team ELO
1493.0
1493.0
Current Opponent ELO
1537.1
44.19
Current ELO Difference
-44.19
0.56
Expected score
0.44
64
History Matches
58
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.64
Overperformance
49.59
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
58
1.64
PPG
1.17
48.4%
Win rate
25.9%
18.8%
Draw rate
39.7%
32.8%
Loss rate
34.5%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.83
PPG
1.00
53.3%
Win rate
24.1%
23.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
23.3%
Loss rate
48.3%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.2%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.21
82.8%
Scoring rate
69.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
65.5%
43.3%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
58
1.64
Goals Mean
1.21
1.24
Goals Std
1.19
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.9%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
6.9%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.31
65.6%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.59
56.7%
Conceding rate
79.3%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
58
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.35
Conceded Std
1.10
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
58
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.60
6.19
Stability score
1.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
58
20
Lead Matches
18
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.61
17
Trailing Matches
14
29.4%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.77
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.45
56.87
Portability Score
69.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO44.19
PPG0.47
GF0.43
GA0.05
PPG-3.00
PPG0.83
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate13.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.43
Stability score4.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.47
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate35.0%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-12.22
Rest days1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.70
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO44.19
Current Opponent ELO-44.19
Current ELO Difference88.39
Expected score0.13
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Casarano

L
Casertana1–0Casarano7 Nov · away
Pick: Casertana 49% · hit
D
Casarano2–2Foggia2 Nov · home
Pick: Casarano 46% · missed
W
Crotone0–1Casarano26 Oct · away
Pick: Crotone 51% · missed
L
Cavese5–2Casarano18 Oct · away
Pick: Cavese 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

AZ Picerno

W
Cavese1–2AZ Picerno31 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Picerno 45% · hit
W
AZ Picerno3–0Salernitana26 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Picerno 51% · hit
L
Barletta1–0AZ Picerno18 Oct · away
Pick: Barletta 40% · hit
L
AZ Picerno1–2Cosenza12 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Picerno 52% · missed
L
Potenza4–2AZ Picerno4 Oct · away
Pick: Potenza 59% · hit

About this match

Casarano and AZ Picerno meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Giuseppe Capozza, Casarano. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Casarano win 43.2%, draw 24.8%, AZ Picerno win 32.0%. The pick is Casarano win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.