ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Basconia vs Amorebieta

Basconia Home · Elo 1,582
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Amorebieta Away · Elo 1,526
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Basconia win
Basconia winPick
38.6%
Draw
25.0%
Amorebieta win
36.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%

How much we know

Basconia history51 matches
Amorebieta history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Basconia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Basconia are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,526. On rating alone Basconia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Basconia score far more

    2.10 goals a game over 51 matches for Basconia, against 1.14 over 56 for Amorebieta.

  • Defences are close

    Basconia concede 1.08 a game, Amorebieta 1.07.

  • Basconia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Basconia matches, against 41% for Amorebieta. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Basconia
Amorebieta
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.6
ELO
1525.8
51
ELO · Matches
56
1581.6
Current Team ELO
1525.8
1525.8
Current Opponent ELO
1581.6
55.82
Current ELO Difference
-55.82
0.58
Expected score
0.42
51
History Matches
56
0.07
Residual Mean
0.02
55.23
Overperformance
51.50
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.60
2.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.96
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
56
1.75
PPG
1.39
47.1%
Win rate
37.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.8%
19.6%
Loss rate
35.7%
86.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
60.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
29
1.96
PPG
1.21
54.2%
Win rate
31.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
12.5%
Loss rate
41.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
24
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.10
Goals for per game
1.14
82.4%
Scoring rate
69.6%
56.9%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.54
Goals for per game
1.10
83.3%
Scoring rate
72.4%
45.8%
BTTS rate
51.7%
51
History Matches
56
2.10
Goals Mean
1.14
1.80
Goals Std
1.01
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.6%
54.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.7%
2.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.07
68.6%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.31
54.2%
Conceding rate
69.0%
51
History Matches
56
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.99
Conceded Std
1.05
27.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.8%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.44
5.30
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
56
22
Lead Matches
19
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.77
11
Trailing Matches
11
63.6%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.25
Rest days
91.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.04
1.35
Portability PPG Range
0.08
42.54
Portability Score
92.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO55.82
PPG0.35
GF0.96
GA0.01
PPG0.75
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.96
Goals Std0.79
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate22.8%
Scored 3+ rate24.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.98
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate0.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score4.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate45.5%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.63
Portability PPG Range1.27
Portability Score-49.91
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO55.82
Current Opponent ELO-55.82
Current ELO Difference111.6
Expected score0.16
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Basconia

D
Compostela0–0Basconia1 Nov · away
Pick: Compostela 46% · missed
D
Basconia2–2Portugalete25 Oct · home
Pick: Portugalete 45% · missed
L
Racing Santander II3–1Basconia17 Oct · away
Pick: Basconia 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Amorebieta

W
Amorebieta1–0Gimnástica Torrelavega1 Nov · home
Pick: Amorebieta 41% · hit
W
Amorebieta2–1Coruxo24 Oct · home
Pick: Amorebieta 46% · hit
W
Gernika1–2Amorebieta17 Oct · away
Pick: Amorebieta 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Basconia and Amorebieta meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Basconia win 38.6%, draw 25.0%, Amorebieta win 36.4%. The pick is Basconia win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.8%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.