Basque Country vs Venezuela
Match result probability Model pick: Basque Country win
Basque Country winPick
36.1%
Draw
32.3%
Venezuela win
31.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.0%
No54.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.540.7%
Under 2.559.3%
How much we know
Basque Country history0 matches
Venezuela history9 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Basque Country
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Basque Country are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,522. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Venezuela@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1521.7
0
ELO · Matches
9
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1521.7
1521.7
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-21.73
Current ELO Difference
21.73
0.47
Expected score
0.53
0
History Matches
9
—
Residual Mean
0.13
—
Overperformance
54.07
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.00
—
Goals for per game
1.60
—
Goals against per game
0.60
—
Win rate
60.0%
0
Matches
9
—
PPG
1.78
—
Goals for per game
1.33
—
Goals against per game
0.67
—
Win rate
55.6%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.15
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.67
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.82
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.85
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
9
—
PPG
1.78
—
Win rate
55.6%
—
Draw rate
11.1%
—
Loss rate
33.3%
—
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
—
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
25.0%
—
Draw rate
25.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
0
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
—
Goals for per game
1.33
—
Scoring rate
77.8%
—
BTTS rate
33.3%
—
Goals for per game
0.75
—
Scoring rate
50.0%
—
BTTS rate
25.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.50
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
9
—
Goals Mean
1.33
—
Goals Std
1.15
—
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
—
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
—
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
—
Goals against per game
0.67
—
Conceding rate
44.4%
—
Goals against per game
0.75
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
—
Goals against per game
1.00
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
0
History Matches
9
—
Conceded Mean
0.67
—
Conceded Std
0.82
—
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
—
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
9
—
Result entropy
0.85
—
Goal Difference Std
1.41
—
Stability score
14.72
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
9
0
Lead Matches
4
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
157.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
3
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.33
0
Long Rest History Matches
5
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
1.50
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
50.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
1.50
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
0
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
9
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-21.73
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
History Matches-4
History Matches-9
History Matches-9
History Matches-9
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-4
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest History Matches-5
Current Team ELO-21.73
Current Opponent ELO21.73
Current ELO Difference-43.46
Expected score-0.06
History Matches-9
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Basque Country
No earlier results with our pick yet
Venezuela
D
Jordan0–0Venezuela6 Oct · away
Pick: Venezuela 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Basque Country and Venezuela meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Basque Country win 36.1%, draw 32.3%, Venezuela win 31.6%. The pick is Basque Country win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.7%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.