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Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

Palestine vs Iran

Palestine Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Iran Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iran win
Palestine win
22.1%
Draw
29.7%
Iran winPick
48.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.0%
No56.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%

How much we know

Palestine history13 matches
Iran history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Iran are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Iran are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,506. On rating alone Iran would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Iran score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 13 matches for Palestine, against 1.67 over 18 for Iran.

  • Defences are close

    Palestine concede 0.85 a game, Iran 0.78.

  • Iran games more often go over 2.5 goals

    31% of Palestine matches, against 56% for Iran. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Palestine
Iran@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.1
ELO
1540.4
13
ELO · Matches
18
1506.1
Current Team ELO
1540.4
1540.4
Current Opponent ELO
1506.1
-34.30
Current ELO Difference
34.30
0.45
Expected score
0.55
13
History Matches
18
0.00
Residual Mean
0.11
50.09
Overperformance
55.29
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
0.70
Goals against per game
0.80
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
18
1.23
PPG
1.61
23.1%
Win rate
38.9%
53.8%
Draw rate
44.4%
23.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
53.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
9
1.40
PPG
1.22
20.0%
Win rate
22.2%
80.0%
Draw rate
55.6%
0.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
0.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
5
History Matches
9
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.85
Goals for per game
1.67
61.5%
Scoring rate
72.2%
46.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.33
80.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
80.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.75
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
13
History Matches
18
0.85
Goals Mean
1.67
0.77
Goals Std
1.37
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.2%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
0.78
53.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
80.0%
Conceding rate
44.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.75
0.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
13
History Matches
18
0.85
Conceded Mean
0.78
0.95
Conceded Std
0.85
23.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
55.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
18
0.92
Result entropy
0.93
0.96
Goal Difference Std
1.63
8.06
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
13
Eligible Matches
18
1
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
5
Trailing Matches
5
40.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
13
Halftime Coverage Matches
18
0.23
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
158.1
Rest days
140.5
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
6
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
4
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
2
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.35
Portability PPG Range
1.58
74.07
Portability Score
45.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-34.30
PPG-0.38
GF-0.82
GA0.07
PPG-1.25
PPG0.18
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate10.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.32
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.84
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.67
Stability score1.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.20
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.23
Portability Score28.71
Rest days17.52
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO-34.30
Current Opponent ELO34.30
Current ELO Difference-68.59
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-5.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Palestine

No earlier results with our pick yet

Iran

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Palestine and Iran meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Palestine win 22.1%, draw 29.7%, Iran win 48.2%. The pick is Iran win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.6%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.