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1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Switzerland Group 2 - 14 2026

Bassecourt vs Zug

Bassecourt Home · Elo 1,437
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zug Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bassecourt win
Bassecourt winPick
43.3%
Draw
24.3%
Zug win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%

How much we know

Bassecourt history52 matches
Zug history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bassecourt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Zug are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,437. On rating alone Zug would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Zug score more

    1.13 goals a game over 52 matches for Bassecourt, against 1.40 over 45 for Zug.

  • Defences are close

    Bassecourt concede 1.54 a game, Zug 1.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Bassecourt matches, against 58% for Zug. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bassecourt
Zug@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1437.1
ELO
1474.4
52
ELO · Matches
45
1437.1
Current Team ELO
1474.4
1474.4
Current Opponent ELO
1437.1
-37.34
Current ELO Difference
37.34
0.45
Expected score
0.55
52
History Matches
45
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.21
Overperformance
47.77
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
3.00
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
2.50
Goals against per game
2.30
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
45
1.06
PPG
1.40
25.0%
Win rate
37.8%
30.8%
Draw rate
26.7%
44.2%
Loss rate
35.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
23
1.39
PPG
1.30
35.7%
Win rate
34.8%
32.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
32.1%
Loss rate
39.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.8%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
28
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.40
71.2%
Scoring rate
73.3%
61.5%
BTTS rate
51.1%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
78.6%
Scoring rate
82.6%
64.3%
BTTS rate
60.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
45
1.13
Goals Mean
1.40
1.11
Goals Std
1.27
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
26.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
9.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.58
80.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.83
78.6%
Conceding rate
73.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
45
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.23
Conceded Std
1.57
42.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.9%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
45
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.22
2.60
Stability score
0.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
28
11
Lead Matches
8
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
5
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
28
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.06
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
24
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.97
1.20
Portability PPG Range
2.75
47.20
Portability Score
33.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.34
PPG-0.34
GF-0.27
GA-0.04
PPG0.00
PPG0.09
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate2.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score1.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.31
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.55
Portability Score13.28
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-37.34
Current Opponent ELO37.34
Current ELO Difference-74.67
Expected score-0.11
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bassecourt

D
Solothurn2–2Bassecourt7 Nov · away
Pick: Solothurn 56% · missed
D
Bassecourt3–3Muttenz31 Oct · home
Pick: Muttenz 49% · missed
W
Bassecourt2–1FC Wohlen25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Wohlen 51% · missed
W
Bassecourt1–0Delémont18 Oct · home
Pick: Bassecourt 44% · hit
L
Bassecourt0–2Thun II4 Oct · home
Pick: Bassecourt 40% · missed

Zug

L
Zug3–5Schötz7 Nov · home
Pick: Schötz 43% · hit
L
Thun II6–1Zug31 Oct · away
Pick: Thun II 47% · hit
W
Zug4–2Black Stars24 Oct · home
Pick: Black Stars 45% · missed
L
Gossau1–0Zug17 Oct · away
Pick: Zug 46% · missed
W
Grasshopper II1–2Zug29 Aug · away
Pick: Grasshopper II 68% · missed

About this match

Bassecourt and Zug meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bassecourt win 43.3%, draw 24.3%, Zug win 32.4%. The pick is Bassecourt win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.