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1. Liga Classic - Group 2 Switzerland Group 2 - 14 2026

Schötz vs Muri-Gümligen

Schötz Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Muri-Gümligen Away · Elo 1,528
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Schötz win
Schötz winPick
39.2%
Draw
24.1%
Muri-Gümligen win
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%

How much we know

Schötz history49 matches
Muri-Gümligen history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Schötz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Muri-Gümligen are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,528 against 1,500. On rating alone Muri-Gümligen would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Schötz score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 49 matches for Schötz, against 1.20 over 10 for Muri-Gümligen.

  • Muri-Gümligen concede fewer

    Schötz concede 2.02 a game, Muri-Gümligen 0.70.

  • Schötz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Schötz matches, against 30% for Muri-Gümligen. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Schötz
Muri-Gümligen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.4
ELO
1528.4
49
ELO · Matches
10
1500.4
Current Team ELO
1528.4
1528.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.4
-27.94
Current ELO Difference
27.94
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
10
0.00
Residual Mean
0.11
49.94
Overperformance
53.51
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
2.50
Goals for per game
1.20
1.50
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
10
1.31
PPG
1.70
34.7%
Win rate
50.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
38.8%
Loss rate
30.0%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
61.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
7
1.54
PPG
1.71
45.8%
Win rate
57.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
42.9%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
24
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.20
75.5%
Scoring rate
70.0%
63.3%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.43
79.2%
Scoring rate
85.7%
62.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
49
History Matches
10
1.86
Goals Mean
1.20
1.44
Goals Std
1.17
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
34.7%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.02
Goals against per game
0.70
83.7%
Conceding rate
40.0%
1.96
Goals against per game
1.00
79.2%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
49
History Matches
10
2.02
Conceded Mean
0.70
1.61
Conceded Std
1.00
55.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
16.3%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
10
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.29
Goal Difference Std
1.50
1.09
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
7
8
Lead Matches
1
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
0
25.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.14
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
20
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
2.33
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.00
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.00
Portability PPG Range
1.17
100.0
Portability Score
46.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-27.94
PPG-0.39
GF0.66
GA1.32
PPG-0.83
PPG-0.17
PPG-0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate-0.44
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate27.1%
Scored 3+ rate24.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches39
Conceded Mean1.32
Conceded Std0.60
Clean-sheet rate-0.44
Conceded 2+ rate35.1%
Conceded 3+ rate22.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches39
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.79
Stability score-5.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.57
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.58
Portability PPG Range-1.17
Portability Score53.85
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO-27.94
Current Opponent ELO27.94
Current ELO Difference-55.89
Expected score-0.08
History Matches39
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-3.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Schötz

W
Zug3–5Schötz7 Nov · away
Pick: Schötz 43% · hit
W
Schötz3–2Solothurn31 Oct · home
Pick: Solothurn 48% · missed
L
Muttenz2–0Schötz24 Oct · away
Pick: Muttenz 48% · hit
L
Tuggen2–1Schötz17 Oct · away
Pick: Tuggen 57% · hit
D
Concordia Basel2–2Schötz29 Aug · away
Pick: Concordia Basel 52% · missed

Muri-Gümligen

D
Muri-Gümligen1–1Thun II7 Nov · home
Pick: Muri-Gümligen 57% · missed
D
Black Stars0–0Muri-Gümligen1 Nov · away
Pick: Black Stars 46% · missed
W
Muri-Gümligen1–0Münsingen24 Oct · home
Pick: Muri-Gümligen 51% · hit
W
FC Wohlen1–2Muri-Gümligen29 Aug · away
Pick: FC Wohlen 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Schötz and Muri-Gümligen meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Schötz win 39.2%, draw 24.1%, Muri-Gümligen win 36.7%. The pick is Schötz win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.