ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Bayern München II vs Bayreuth

Bayern München II Home · Elo 1,445
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayreuth Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayreuth win
Bayern München II win
29.2%
Draw
18.9%
Bayreuth winPick
51.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.7%
No39.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.7%
Under 2.535.3%

How much we know

Bayern München II history64 matches
Bayreuth history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Bayreuth are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bayreuth are rated 86 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,445. On rating alone Bayreuth would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Bayreuth score more

    1.61 goals a game over 64 matches for Bayern München II, against 1.86 over 69 for Bayreuth.

  • Bayreuth concede fewer

    Bayern München II concede 1.73 a game, Bayreuth 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Bayern München II matches, against 58% for Bayreuth. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern München II
Bayreuth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.5
ELO
1530.2
64
ELO · Matches
69
1444.5
Current Team ELO
1530.2
1530.2
Current Opponent ELO
1444.5
-85.68
Current ELO Difference
85.68
0.38
Expected score
0.62
64
History Matches
69
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
47.03
Overperformance
52.22
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.41
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.26
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
69
1.16
PPG
1.48
31.3%
Win rate
40.6%
21.9%
Draw rate
26.1%
46.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.5%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
32
1.36
PPG
1.28
36.4%
Win rate
31.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
34.4%
36.4%
Loss rate
34.4%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
39.4%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.59
33
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.86
78.1%
Scoring rate
81.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.75
84.8%
Scoring rate
78.1%
57.6%
BTTS rate
62.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.80
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
64
History Matches
69
1.61
Goals Mean
1.86
1.54
Goals Std
1.77
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.2%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.8%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.43
82.8%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.50
69.7%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
64
History Matches
69
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.27
Conceded Std
1.36
51.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.1%
26.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.1%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
69
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
2.23
Goal Difference Std
2.45
4.32
Stability score
1.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
68
18
Lead Matches
27
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.78
26
Trailing Matches
20
26.9%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.85
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
0.25
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
4
Current Competition Matches
5
0.25
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.16
Portability PPG Range
1.47
53.36
Portability Score
44.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-85.68
PPG-0.32
GF-0.25
GA0.30
PPG-1.15
PPG0.08
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score2.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate7.4%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate1.9%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score8.85
Rest days-3.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-85.68
Current Opponent ELO85.68
Current ELO Difference-171.4
Expected score-0.24
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayern München II

D
Nürnberg II1–1Bayern München II27 Oct · away
Pick: Nürnberg II 56% · missed
W
TSV 1860 München2–4Bayern München II18 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 62% · missed
W
Illertissen0–2Bayern München II29 Aug · away
Pick: Illertissen 75% · missed
L
Bayern München II1–2Memmingen25 Aug · home
Pick: Memmingen 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bayreuth

W
Bayreuth3–1Nürnberg II31 Oct · home
Pick: Bayreuth 50% · hit
W
Bayreuth3–1Eichstätt17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayreuth 58% · hit
L
TSV 1860 München2–1Bayreuth13 Oct · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 51% · hit
L
Buchbach2–1Bayreuth29 Aug · away
Pick: Buchbach 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bayern München II and Bayreuth meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bayern München II win 29.2%, draw 18.9%, Bayreuth win 51.9%. The pick is Bayreuth win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.7%. Both teams to score: 60.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.