ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

SpVgg Unterhaching vs Schwaben Augsburg

SpVgg Unterhaching Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Schwaben Augsburg Away · Elo 1,489
Uhlsport Park, Unterhaching Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SpVgg Unterhaching win
SpVgg Unterhaching winPick
44.8%
Draw
26.8%
Schwaben Augsburg win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

SpVgg Unterhaching history67 matches
Schwaben Augsburg history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SpVgg Unterhaching are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SpVgg Unterhaching are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,489. On rating alone SpVgg Unterhaching would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • SpVgg Unterhaching score more

    1.69 goals a game over 67 matches for SpVgg Unterhaching, against 1.30 over 57 for Schwaben Augsburg.

  • SpVgg Unterhaching concede fewer

    SpVgg Unterhaching concede 1.30 a game, Schwaben Augsburg 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of SpVgg Unterhaching matches, against 54% for Schwaben Augsburg. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SpVgg Unterhaching
Schwaben Augsburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.4
ELO
1489.5
67
ELO · Matches
57
1554.4
Current Team ELO
1489.5
1489.5
Current Opponent ELO
1554.4
64.91
Current ELO Difference
-64.91
0.59
Expected score
0.41
67
History Matches
57
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.41
Overperformance
49.61
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.18
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
57
1.51
PPG
1.16
44.8%
Win rate
29.8%
16.4%
Draw rate
26.3%
38.8%
Loss rate
43.9%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.4%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
1.63
PPG
1.36
50.0%
Win rate
39.3%
13.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
36.7%
Loss rate
42.9%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.30
73.1%
Scoring rate
75.4%
47.8%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.32
76.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
36.7%
BTTS rate
53.6%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
57
1.69
Goals Mean
1.30
1.57
Goals Std
1.06
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
25.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.61
70.1%
Conceding rate
87.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.46
56.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
57
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.12
Conceded Std
1.12
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
57
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
2.21
Goal Difference Std
1.68
6.81
Stability score
2.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
56
29
Lead Matches
15
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.73
19
Trailing Matches
21
15.8%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.83
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.75
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.45
Portability PPG Range
0.75
44.74
Portability Score
63.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.91
PPG0.35
GF0.39
GA-0.32
PPG0.75
PPG0.28
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate25.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score4.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.12
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate26.2%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.15
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-18.48
Rest days6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO64.91
Current Opponent ELO-64.91
Current ELO Difference129.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SpVgg Unterhaching

L
Wacker Burghausen2–0SpVgg Unterhaching30 Oct · away
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · hit
W
SpVgg Unterhaching2–1Ansbach24 Oct · home
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 60% · hit
D
Vilzing0–0SpVgg Unterhaching17 Oct · away
Pick: Vilzing 51% · missed
W
SpVgg Unterhaching4–0Landsberg13 Oct · home
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 54% · hit
D
Memmingen0–0SpVgg Unterhaching29 Aug · away
Pick: Memmingen 47% · missed

Schwaben Augsburg

W
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Eltersdorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Eltersdorf 39% · missed
W
Greuther Fürth II0–2Schwaben Augsburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Greuther Fürth II 47% · missed
W
Schwaben Augsburg2–1Aubstadt17 Oct · home
Pick: Aubstadt 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SpVgg Unterhaching and Schwaben Augsburg meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Uhlsport Park, Unterhaching. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SpVgg Unterhaching win 44.8%, draw 26.8%, Schwaben Augsburg win 28.4%. The pick is SpVgg Unterhaching win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.