ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Bayern Germany Bayern - 18 2026

Vilzing vs Landsberg

Vilzing Home · Elo 1,581
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Landsberg Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vilzing win
Vilzing winPick
58.1%
Draw
20.1%
Landsberg win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Vilzing history64 matches
Landsberg history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vilzing are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,581 against 1,558. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.06 goals a game over 64 matches for Vilzing, against 2.09 over 54 for Landsberg.

  • Vilzing concede fewer

    Vilzing concede 1.17 a game, Landsberg 1.52.

  • Landsberg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Vilzing matches, against 65% for Landsberg. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vilzing
Landsberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.6
ELO
1558.4
64
ELO · Matches
54
1580.6
Current Team ELO
1558.4
1558.4
Current Opponent ELO
1580.6
22.18
Current ELO Difference
-22.18
0.53
Expected score
0.47
64
History Matches
54
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
54.94
Overperformance
53.45
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
2.30
Goals for per game
1.90
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
54
1.91
PPG
1.65
59.4%
Win rate
46.3%
12.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
28.1%
Loss rate
27.8%
73.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.8%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
29
2.03
PPG
1.45
64.7%
Win rate
41.4%
8.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
26.5%
Loss rate
37.9%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.9%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
34
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.06
Goals for per game
2.09
79.7%
Scoring rate
81.5%
53.1%
BTTS rate
68.5%
2.26
Goals for per game
1.83
82.4%
Scoring rate
79.3%
47.1%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
64
History Matches
54
2.06
Goals Mean
2.09
1.94
Goals Std
1.70
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
35.9%
Scored 3+ rate
35.2%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.52
70.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.66
61.8%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
64
History Matches
54
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.08
Conceded Std
1.37
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.1%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
54
0.84
Result entropy
0.97
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.26
15.69
Stability score
3.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
53
26
Lead Matches
23
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
11
Trailing Matches
14
27.3%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.40
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.66
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.63
49.16
Portability Score
43.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO22.18
PPG0.26
GF-0.03
GA-0.35
PPG1.40
PPG0.58
PPG1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate0.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score12.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate9.7%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score6.15
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO22.18
Current Opponent ELO-22.18
Current ELO Difference44.35
Expected score0.06
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vilzing

L
Aubstadt2–0Vilzing30 Oct · away
Pick: Aubstadt 46% · hit
D
Vilzing0–0SpVgg Unterhaching17 Oct · home
Pick: Vilzing 51% · missed
W
Eichstätt2–3Vilzing13 Oct · away
Pick: Vilzing 44% · hit
W
Wacker Burghausen4–5Vilzing29 Aug · away
Pick: Wacker Burghausen 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Landsberg

L
FC Schweinfurt 052–1Landsberg23 Oct · away
Pick: FC Schweinfurt 05 47% · hit
D
Landsberg1–1Eltersdorf17 Oct · home
Pick: Eltersdorf 39% · missed
L
SpVgg Unterhaching4–0Landsberg13 Oct · away
Pick: SpVgg Unterhaching 54% · hit
D
TSV 1860 München1–1Landsberg30 Aug · away
Pick: TSV 1860 München 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vilzing and Landsberg meet in Regionalliga - Bayern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vilzing win 58.1%, draw 20.1%, Landsberg win 21.8%. The pick is Vilzing win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.