ScoreProb
Premier League Botswana 2026

BDF XI vs Centre Chiefs

BDF XI Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Centre Chiefs Away · Elo 1,576
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Centre Chiefs win
BDF XI win
28.5%
Draw
30.4%
Centre Chiefs winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.4%
Under 2.557.6%

How much we know

BDF XI history30 matches
Centre Chiefs history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Centre Chiefs are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Centre Chiefs are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,472. On rating alone Centre Chiefs would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Centre Chiefs score more

    1.10 goals a game over 30 matches for BDF XI, against 1.27 over 30 for Centre Chiefs.

  • Centre Chiefs concede fewer

    BDF XI concede 1.20 a game, Centre Chiefs 0.77.

  • BDF XI games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of BDF XI matches, against 27% for Centre Chiefs. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BDF XI
Centre Chiefs@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.4
ELO
1575.7
30
ELO · Matches
30
1472.4
Current Team ELO
1575.7
1575.7
Current Opponent ELO
1472.4
-103.3
Current ELO Difference
103.3
0.36
Expected score
0.64
30
History Matches
30
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
47.28
Overperformance
56.72
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
30
Matches
30
1.20
PPG
1.93
33.3%
Win rate
56.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
46.7%
Loss rate
20.0%
56.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
26.7%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
17
1.13
PPG
2.06
33.3%
Win rate
64.7%
13.3%
Draw rate
11.8%
53.3%
Loss rate
23.5%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
17.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
5.9%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
15
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.27
70.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
46.7%
BTTS rate
36.7%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.24
73.3%
Scoring rate
76.5%
53.3%
BTTS rate
23.5%
30
History Matches
30
1.10
Goals Mean
1.27
1.01
Goals Std
0.85
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
26.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
0.77
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.59
73.3%
Conceding rate
41.2%
30
History Matches
30
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.11
Conceded Std
0.88
36.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
0.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
58.8%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
58.8%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
30
History Matches
30
0.95
Result entropy
0.90
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.15
4.99
Stability score
10.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
29
4
Lead Matches
10
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
11
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.83
15
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.05
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.11
73.47
Portability Score
90.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
30
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-103.3
PPG-0.73
GF-0.17
GA0.43
PPG-0.93
PPG-0.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches0
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score-5.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-17.01
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Current Team ELO-103.3
Current Opponent ELO103.3
Current ELO Difference-206.6
Expected score-0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-9.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BDF XI

L
Township Rollers2–1BDF XI1 Nov · away
Pick: Township Rollers 40% · hit
L
Sua Flamingoes1–0BDF XI17 Oct · away
Pick: Sua Flamingoes 45% · hit
L
BDF XI1–3Nico United29 Aug · home
Pick: BDF XI 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Centre Chiefs

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

BDF XI and Centre Chiefs meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: BDF XI win 28.5%, draw 30.4%, Centre Chiefs win 41.1%. The pick is Centre Chiefs win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.4%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.