ScoreProb
Premier League Botswana 2026

Nico United vs Morupule Wanderers

Nico United Home · Elo 1,466
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Morupule Wanderers Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Morupule Wanderers win
Nico United win
29.1%
Draw
31.7%
Morupule Wanderers winPick
39.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.0%
No56.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.9%
Under 2.559.1%

How much we know

Nico United history25 matches
Morupule Wanderers history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Morupule Wanderers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Morupule Wanderers are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,466. On rating alone Morupule Wanderers would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Morupule Wanderers score far more

    0.68 goals a game over 25 matches for Nico United, against 1.38 over 29 for Morupule Wanderers.

  • Defences are close

    Nico United concede 1.08 a game, Morupule Wanderers 1.07.

  • Morupule Wanderers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Nico United matches, against 48% for Morupule Wanderers. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nico United
Morupule Wanderers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.7
ELO
1513.5
25
ELO · Matches
29
1465.7
Current Team ELO
1513.5
1513.5
Current Opponent ELO
1465.7
-47.83
Current ELO Difference
47.83
0.43
Expected score
0.57
25
History Matches
29
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
45.23
Overperformance
52.35
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
29
1.00
PPG
1.45
24.0%
Win rate
41.4%
28.0%
Draw rate
20.7%
48.0%
Loss rate
37.9%
48.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
32.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
8.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
12
0.70
PPG
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
41.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
30.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
10
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.68
Goals for per game
1.38
48.0%
Scoring rate
72.4%
36.0%
BTTS rate
48.3%
0.40
Goals for per game
1.25
30.0%
Scoring rate
58.3%
20.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
25
History Matches
29
0.68
Goals Mean
1.38
0.79
Goals Std
1.13
48.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.4%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
0.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.07
76.0%
Conceding rate
65.5%
0.90
Goals against per game
0.92
60.0%
Conceding rate
58.3%
25
History Matches
29
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.07
0.80
Conceded Std
0.98
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
70.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
52.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
70.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
29
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.06
Goal Difference Std
1.49
4.31
Stability score
3.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
26
5
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
8
Trailing Matches
4
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
13
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
15
Long Rest History Matches
13
0.87
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.84
75.00
Portability Score
54.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-47.83
PPG-0.45
GF-0.70
GA0.01
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate24.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate28.3%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score0.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score20.56
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-47.83
Current Opponent ELO47.83
Current ELO Difference-95.66
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-7.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Nico United

L
Nico United0–2Gaborone United17 Oct · home
Pick: Gaborone United 47% · hit
W
BDF XI1–3Nico United29 Aug · away
Pick: BDF XI 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Morupule Wanderers

D
Morupule Wanderers0–0Prisons XI17 Oct · home
Pick: Morupule Wanderers 64% · missed
L
Police XI2–0Morupule Wanderers30 Aug · away
Pick: Morupule Wanderers 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Nico United and Morupule Wanderers meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Nico United win 29.1%, draw 31.7%, Morupule Wanderers win 39.2%. The pick is Morupule Wanderers win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.9%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.