Galaxy vs Matebele
Match result probability Model pick: Galaxy win
Galaxy winPick
54.9%
Draw
25.2%
Matebele win
19.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.6%
No53.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%
How much we know
Galaxy history33 matches
Matebele history28 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Galaxy
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Galaxy are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Galaxy are rated 87 Elo points higher
Elo 1,571 against 1,484. On rating alone Galaxy would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Galaxy score more
1.58 goals a game over 33 matches for Galaxy, against 1.04 over 28 for Matebele.
-
Galaxy concede fewer
Galaxy concede 0.91 a game, Matebele 1.29.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
39% of Galaxy matches, against 36% for Matebele. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Matebele@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1570.7
ELO
1483.9
33
ELO · Matches
28
1570.7
Current Team ELO
1483.9
1483.9
Current Opponent ELO
1570.7
86.80
Current ELO Difference
-86.80
0.62
Expected score
0.38
33
History Matches
28
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.46
Overperformance
49.14
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
28
1.73
PPG
1.29
45.5%
Win rate
35.7%
36.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
12
2.19
PPG
1.50
62.5%
Win rate
41.7%
31.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
6.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
16
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
1.04
75.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
51.5%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.17
75.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
31.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
33
History Matches
28
1.58
Goals Mean
1.04
1.23
Goals Std
0.82
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
51.5%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
3.6%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.91
Goals against per game
1.29
57.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.38
Goals against per game
1.42
37.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
33
History Matches
28
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.11
Conceded Std
1.10
15.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.3%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
62.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
42.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
28
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.43
5.68
Stability score
3.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
31
Eligible Matches
26
10
Lead Matches
4
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.58
6
Trailing Matches
9
66.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.23
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
168.0
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
17
Normal Rest History Matches
9
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.94
Portability PPG Range
0.44
55.98
Portability Score
69.23
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
28
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO86.80
PPG0.44
GF0.54
GA-0.38
PPG0.69
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.54
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate22.9%
Scored 3+ rate17.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.88
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score2.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.12
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate30.0%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate44.4%
Trailing Win Rate22.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-13.26
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.22
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO86.80
Current Opponent ELO-86.80
Current ELO Difference173.6
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance7.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Galaxy and Matebele meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Galaxy win 54.9%, draw 25.2%, Matebele win 19.9%. The pick is Galaxy win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.0%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.