ScoreProb
Premier League Belarus Round 28 2026

Belshina vs FC Isloch Minsk R.

Belshina Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Isloch Minsk R. Away · Elo 1,669
Spartak Stadium, Bobruisk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. win
Belshina win
20.7%
Draw
19.7%
FC Isloch Minsk R. winPick
59.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Belshina history64 matches
FC Isloch Minsk R. history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Isloch Minsk R. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Isloch Minsk R. are rated 185 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,669 against 1,485. On rating alone FC Isloch Minsk R. would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 64 matches for Belshina, against 1.49 over 65 for FC Isloch Minsk R..

  • FC Isloch Minsk R. concede fewer

    Belshina concede 1.45 a game, FC Isloch Minsk R. 0.69.

  • Belshina games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Belshina matches, against 37% for FC Isloch Minsk R.. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Belshina
FC Isloch Minsk R.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.8
ELO
1669.4
64
ELO · Matches
65
1484.8
Current Team ELO
1669.4
1669.4
Current Opponent ELO
1484.8
-184.5
Current ELO Difference
184.5
0.26
Expected score
0.74
64
History Matches
65
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
49.06
Overperformance
59.88
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.33
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.80
1.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
3.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
65
1.39
PPG
1.91
40.6%
Win rate
52.3%
17.2%
Draw rate
33.8%
42.2%
Loss rate
13.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.1%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
36.9%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
32
1.59
PPG
1.75
46.9%
Win rate
46.9%
18.8%
Draw rate
34.4%
34.4%
Loss rate
18.8%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
32
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.49
73.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
51.6%
BTTS rate
36.9%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.38
78.1%
Scoring rate
81.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.82
64.7%
Scoring rate
88.2%
47.1%
BTTS rate
47.1%
64
History Matches
65
1.50
Goals Mean
1.49
1.52
Goals Std
1.20
73.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
0.69
76.6%
Conceding rate
44.6%
1.16
Goals against per game
0.94
68.8%
Conceding rate
56.3%
1.82
Goals against per game
0.82
82.4%
Conceding rate
58.8%
64
History Matches
65
1.45
Conceded Mean
0.69
1.29
Conceded Std
0.91
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.5%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.2%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
0.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
55.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
55.4%
26.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
55.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.51
6.00
Stability score
10.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
65
22
Lead Matches
31
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.86
21
Trailing Matches
11
14.3%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
75.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
34
Long Rest History Matches
36
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
0.88
PPG
2.18
23.5%
Win rate
64.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
23.5%
58.8%
Loss rate
11.8%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
17
Current Competition Matches
17
0.88
Current Competition PPG
2.18
-0.88
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.62
49.77
Portability Score
67.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-184.5
PPG-0.52
GF0.01
GA0.76
PPG-1.29
PPG-0.16
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.11
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.76
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Conceded 2+ rate22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.69
Stability score-4.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.98
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.88
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-17.57
Rest days2.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-184.5
Current Opponent ELO184.5
Current ELO Difference-369.1
Expected score-0.49
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Belshina

W
Bate Borisov0–1Belshina24 Oct · away
Pick: Bate Borisov 49% · missed
L
Belshina2–4Slavia Mozyr19 Oct · home
Pick: Belshina 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Isloch Minsk R.

W
Naftan0–6FC Isloch Minsk R.24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. 83% · hit
D
FC Dnepr Mogilev0–0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. 53% · missed
W
FC Isloch Minsk R.1–0Dinamo Minsk24 Aug · home
Pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Belshina and FC Isloch Minsk R. meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Spartak Stadium, Bobruisk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Belshina win 20.7%, draw 19.7%, FC Isloch Minsk R. win 59.6%. The pick is FC Isloch Minsk R. win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.