ScoreProb
Premier League Belarus Round 28 2026

FC Minsk vs Dinamo Brest

FC Minsk Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Brest Away · Elo 1,581
Stadion Traktor, Minsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Brest win
FC Minsk win
30.5%
Draw
25.2%
Dinamo Brest winPick
44.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

FC Minsk history67 matches
Dinamo Brest history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Brest are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Brest are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,544. On rating alone Dinamo Brest would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Brest score more

    1.40 goals a game over 67 matches for FC Minsk, against 1.63 over 70 for Dinamo Brest.

  • Dinamo Brest concede fewer

    FC Minsk concede 1.57 a game, Dinamo Brest 1.10.

  • FC Minsk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of FC Minsk matches, against 49% for Dinamo Brest. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Minsk
Dinamo Brest@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.0
ELO
1581.4
67
ELO · Matches
70
1544.0
Current Team ELO
1581.4
1581.4
Current Opponent ELO
1544.0
-37.38
Current ELO Difference
37.38
0.45
Expected score
0.55
67
History Matches
70
0.03
Residual Mean
0.06
52.61
Overperformance
54.61
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.30
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
70
1.46
PPG
1.70
41.8%
Win rate
50.0%
20.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.3%
Loss rate
30.0%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
34
1.35
PPG
1.62
35.3%
Win rate
47.1%
29.4%
Draw rate
20.6%
35.3%
Loss rate
32.4%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
34
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.63
77.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
61.2%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.56
76.5%
Scoring rate
70.6%
58.8%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.63
68.4%
Scoring rate
78.9%
52.6%
BTTS rate
47.4%
67
History Matches
70
1.40
Goals Mean
1.63
1.12
Goals Std
1.63
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.10
79.1%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.21
76.5%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.26
Goals against per game
0.95
78.9%
Conceding rate
57.9%
67
History Matches
70
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.28
Conceded Std
1.21
44.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
20.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.24
3.55
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
70
21
Lead Matches
33
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
23
Trailing Matches
18
30.4%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
17.4%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
76.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
31
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
32
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.47
PPG
1.63
42.1%
Win rate
47.4%
21.1%
Draw rate
21.1%
36.8%
Loss rate
31.6%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.47
Current Competition PPG
1.63
0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.68
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.03
Portability PPG Range
0.67
53.38
Portability Score
68.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.38
PPG-0.24
GF-0.23
GA0.47
PPG-0.16
PPG-0.26
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-2.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.16
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.63
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.37
Portability Score-15.58
Rest days1.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-37.38
Current Opponent ELO37.38
Current ELO Difference-74.76
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Minsk

L
Bate Borisov2–1FC Minsk30 Aug · away
Pick: Bate Borisov 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Brest

L
Dinamo Brest1–3ML Vitebsk29 Aug · home
Pick: ML Vitebsk 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Minsk and Dinamo Brest meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Traktor, Minsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Minsk win 30.5%, draw 25.2%, Dinamo Brest win 44.3%. The pick is Dinamo Brest win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.