ScoreProb
Premier League Belarus Round 28 2026

Neman vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

Neman Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Dnepr Mogilev Away · Elo 1,500
Stadion Neman, Grodno Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Neman win
Neman winPick
56.6%
Draw
23.8%
FC Dnepr Mogilev win
19.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Neman history83 matches
FC Dnepr Mogilev history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Neman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Neman are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,500. On rating alone Neman would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 83 matches for Neman, against 1.45 over 66 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.

  • Neman concede fewer

    Neman concede 0.95 a game, FC Dnepr Mogilev 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Neman matches, against 52% for FC Dnepr Mogilev. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Neman
FC Dnepr Mogilev@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.4
ELO
1499.8
83
ELO · Matches
66
1543.4
Current Team ELO
1499.8
1499.8
Current Opponent ELO
1543.4
43.63
Current ELO Difference
-43.63
0.56
Expected score
0.44
83
History Matches
66
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.84
Overperformance
50.39
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
66
1.60
PPG
1.50
47.0%
Win rate
40.9%
19.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
33.7%
Loss rate
31.8%
67.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.5%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
31
1.80
PPG
1.39
54.3%
Win rate
38.7%
17.4%
Draw rate
22.6%
28.3%
Loss rate
38.7%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
46
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.45
65.1%
Scoring rate
72.7%
39.8%
BTTS rate
56.1%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.32
69.6%
Scoring rate
74.2%
37.0%
BTTS rate
64.5%
1.11
Goals for per game
0.84
61.1%
Scoring rate
57.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
52.6%
83
History Matches
66
1.48
Goals Mean
1.45
1.52
Goals Std
1.28
65.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
45.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
21.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.7%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.24
63.9%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.58
56.5%
Conceding rate
80.6%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.53
72.2%
Conceding rate
78.9%
83
History Matches
66
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.92
Conceded Std
1.09
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.8%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
42.1%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
66
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.73
5.44
Stability score
1.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
66
21
Lead Matches
23
95.2%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.81
21
Trailing Matches
15
28.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.05
Rest days
74.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
57
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.37
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
19
1.50
PPG
0.74
44.4%
Win rate
10.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
42.1%
38.9%
Loss rate
47.4%
61.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.4%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
18
Current Competition Matches
19
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.74
0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.68
10
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.23
48.99
Portability Score
52.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.63
PPG0.10
GF0.03
GA-0.29
PPG0.76
PPG0.42
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate24.1%
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate1.8%
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score4.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate17.0%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate1.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.76
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.85
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-3.91
Rest days2.11
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO43.63
Current Opponent ELO-43.63
Current ELO Difference87.26
Expected score0.12
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Neman

W
Neman1–0Slavia Mozyr29 Aug · home
Pick: Neman 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Dnepr Mogilev

D
FC Dnepr Mogilev0–0FC Isloch Minsk R.30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Isloch Minsk R. 53% · missed
D
Torpedo Zhodino0–0FC Dnepr Mogilev24 Aug · away
Pick: Torpedo Zhodino 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Neman and FC Dnepr Mogilev meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Neman, Grodno. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Neman win 56.6%, draw 23.8%, FC Dnepr Mogilev win 19.6%. The pick is Neman win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.