ScoreProb
Premier League Belarus Round 28 2026

FC Gomel vs Arsenal

FC Gomel Home · Elo 1,569
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arsenal Away · Elo 1,466
Central Stadion, Gomel Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Gomel win
FC Gomel winPick
59.0%
Draw
22.9%
Arsenal win
18.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

FC Gomel history63 matches
Arsenal history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FC Gomel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Gomel are rated 103 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,466. On rating alone FC Gomel would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • FC Gomel score more

    1.37 goals a game over 63 matches for FC Gomel, against 0.97 over 67 for Arsenal.

  • FC Gomel concede fewer

    FC Gomel concede 1.03 a game, Arsenal 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of FC Gomel matches, against 45% for Arsenal. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Gomel
Arsenal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1569.1
ELO
1466.4
63
ELO · Matches
67
1569.1
Current Team ELO
1466.4
1466.4
Current Opponent ELO
1569.1
102.7
Current ELO Difference
-102.7
0.64
Expected score
0.36
63
History Matches
67
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.51
Overperformance
47.63
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
0.70
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
67
1.56
PPG
1.07
42.9%
Win rate
25.4%
27.0%
Draw rate
31.3%
30.2%
Loss rate
43.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.6%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.67
PPG
1.00
48.5%
Win rate
22.2%
21.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
30.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
42.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
0.97
71.4%
Scoring rate
62.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
43.3%
1.64
Goals for per game
0.86
75.8%
Scoring rate
61.1%
51.5%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.05
73.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
42.1%
BTTS rate
47.4%
63
History Matches
67
1.37
Goals Mean
0.97
1.25
Goals Std
0.96
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
23.9%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.42
58.7%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.44
69.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.63
57.9%
Conceding rate
78.9%
63
History Matches
67
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.22
Conceded Std
1.17
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
42.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.87
Stability score
2.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
66
24
Lead Matches
18
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.67
14
Trailing Matches
20
14.3%
Non-loss rate
15.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
29
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
31
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
19
1.58
PPG
1.11
42.1%
Win rate
26.3%
31.6%
Draw rate
31.6%
26.3%
Loss rate
42.1%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
19
Current Competition Matches
19
1.58
Current Competition PPG
1.11
0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.58
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.11
1.29
Portability PPG Range
0.33
51.95
Portability Score
81.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO102.7
PPG0.48
GF0.39
GA-0.39
PPG0.47
PPG0.67
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate15.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-0.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate19.4%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.47
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.21
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.96
Portability Score-29.96
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.13
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO102.7
Current Opponent ELO-102.7
Current ELO Difference205.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Gomel

L
FC Gomel1–2Dinamo Minsk24 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Arsenal

W
Arsenal1–0Bate Borisov30 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 39% · hit
L
Dinamo Minsk2–0Arsenal19 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk 70% · hit
L
Arsenal2–4Torpedo Zhodino30 Aug · home
Pick: Torpedo Zhodino 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Gomel and Arsenal meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Central Stadion, Gomel. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Gomel win 59.0%, draw 22.9%, Arsenal win 18.1%. The pick is FC Gomel win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.